Greece is major scratch on global economic glass

By Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos Source:Global Times Published: 2012-6-24 19:35:08

Some analysts think the Greek case is hopeless and that its fate is of little import, since Greece accounts for less than 3 percent of Europe's $9 trillion GDP. However, a small problem can spiral out of control if one repeatedly fails to solve it. This is why the latest political developments in Greece are both important and promising.

First, the pro-European political parties won the parliamentary elections of June 17. Anti-bailout political parties, the most prominent of which is the radical left party Syriza, lost.

Second, contrary to the widespread impression that Greece has become ungovernable, just 72 hours after the election, a pro-European coalition government was in place.

The coalition government prepares to ask the so-called troika of the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to relax certain measures of the bailout package. Since May 2010 such measures have brought the Greek economy to its knees (21 percent unemployment, GDP declining by 6 percent in 2011).

Further on, given that the precise content of the bailout package is anyway adapted every three months, the radical left opposition will probably grant the new coalition government a grace period.

The leader of New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, can convince Greeks as well as European partners that he can lead the country out of the crisis, if he sets realistic targets and proceeds to fulfill them.

For instance, given that the Greek economy is in depression for a fifth straight year, it is not realistic to expect that the Samaras government will be able to show a budget surplus by next year. There is an obvious need for more time. Nor is it possible to lay off 15,000 civil servants by the end of 2012, another unrealistic measure contained in the bailout package which must now be seen in the light of the already very high unemployment rate.

After obtaining an extension period, Greece should fulfill the terms of the bailout package. If not, it will be sanctioned with delays in receiving further financial aid or even cancellation of the package.

However, if creditors do not insist on Greece implementing the bailout package, even if efforts are made to prevent a bigger economic depression and a potential humanitarian crisis, other countries in southern Europe may demand to have their own rescue packages scrapped. This would undermine the credibility of the EU institutions which masterminded these bailouts.

However, owing to the results of the Greek and French elections, world leaders are fully aware of the need for political legitimization of any rescue package. Leaders can make them more legitimate if they stress the prospects for development. Without separate additional development funds, to promote infrastructural development and job growth, will remain over the abyss.

Now that Spain is reaching the point to be also excluded from international markets and Italy runs the risk of becoming further infected by the crisis, it is high time for world leaders to admit publicly what they surely feel, namely that the world has become more unpredictable than ever before.

National governments, international markets and international organizations have tried to reduce levels of uncertainty, with little success so far. Markets are always ahead of governments as far as the speed at which they react is concerned. And there is no question that markets have different priorities from governments.

On the other hand, international organizations and forums, such as the G20 which convened last week, focus on crises of small economies because if small scratches on the body of the world economy are left unattended, extensive bleeding may follow.

In other words, the world has become so inter-connected that concerted action by governments and international organizations is needed in order to manage problems initially believed to be negligible.

The author is associate professor of Political Science at the University of Athens, Greece. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

 



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