The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) split when powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa walked out with 49 of his party followers less than a week after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda won passage of a divisive bill to raise the consumption tax.

Ozawa would have had to be punished, even if not heavily, by the party for voting against the Prime Minister's bill. But I think he intended to split the party and to leave it and form his own party when he voted against the bill. He was likely to leave the party anyway unless the bill could be blocked. He had to know he would be punished in some way so all the rest is just political theater.

Ozawa is expected to form a new party in the coming days with his faction members and some others opposing the tax bill. But I don't think at first it will have much of an impact. For now Ozawa failed to get the minimum number of representatives needed to introduce a motion of no confidence.

If he had, he might have had more impact. If he continues to fall short, his party will not be significant. And, Ozawa is not popular with the general public at all and if, when the next election is held, his party does not increase significantly, I think Ozawa will begin to fade from the spotlight and not have much influence at all. Only if his party gains seats in the next election and neither of the two major parties get a majority, will Ozawa's new party have much influence.

The revolt was a narrow escape for Noda, as it failed to end the ruling DPJ's dominance of parliament or immediately to bring down the government. That said, the defections still mark another stage in the decline of the DPJ.

The DPJ has declined a lot since they took power. Yukio Hatoyama, the DPJ's first prime minister, began the decline with his incompetent handling of the issue of moving the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station from Okinawa. Ozawa's corruption scandal and trial worsened things, as did the public's dissatisfaction with the way former Prime minister Naoto Kan handled the nuclear crisis in March 2011.

So the party has already lost a lot of support. Ironically, however, Ozawa's departure may mean a rise in the DPJ's popularity, since this could help unite the party and also help it appeal to more people who dislike Ozawa. But none of the current parties are very popular with the public right now.

Hatoyama and a dozen of his faction members who supported Ozawa also defied Noda by voting against the increase in Japan's consumption tax, but remain in the DPJ.

Whether more defections in the DPJ will happen is the key question that can finally decide if there is a swift general election soon. If Hatoyama and the others who voted against the tax increase remain in the DPJ, there may not be an election soon. If they leave, however, and join Ozawa, it will give him the numbers he needs to introduce no confidence motion in the House. The latest news is that Hatoyama hinted Saturday that he might back a possible no confidence motion against the Noda government.

If that happens, Ozawa's party can create delay and further embarrassment for the DPJ government and possibly force an election.

In any case, much depends on this and whether Noda can get the tax bill through the Upper House. If he can't, then there is likely to be an election soon.

Personally, I think Noda's best strategy would be to get the bill through and passed the Upper House, and then immediately call an election and run against Ozawa as much as the LDP and other parties. This is the strategy former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi used in 2005 to win a big election. But I am not sure Noda has the same courage as Koizumi.

Noda has staked his political career on raising Japan's consumption tax from 5 percent to 10 percent over the next three years. He argues that it is crucial to reducing Japan's debt. But Ozawa insists that increasing tax will choke consumer spending and further threaten the country's already feeble economic growth.

I agree with Noda's position that the tax increase is necessary. In fact, it may even be too small to help with the financial crisis Japan faces in the next few years.

However, Ozawa may be correct that it may slow growth. This is Japan's dilemma at present. It must do something to address its huge fiscal deficit, but at the same time, raising taxes or cutting spending may slow the economic growth needed to solve the deficit problem.

The only question though is how much it will choke off economic growth and whether economic growth will be enough to overcome the tax effect. We don't know yet whether the timing is bad for the increase. 

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Wang Zhaokun based upon an interview with Ellis Krauss, professor of Japanese Politics with the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn