Since last year, there have been speculations as to whether the fire of Arab Spring would spread to China, where fast economic growth has evidently given rise to the demand for greater political participation.

In my view, the chance of this is quite low.

The eruption of a revolution usually calls for three socio-political conditions. First and foremost, only when the masses have nothing to lose will they choose to revolt.

Those who own property are reluctant to take to the street and join in a revolution where they have to risk their own lives. 

Furthermore, revolutions are a product of desperation. When people have neither a stake nor hope in an existing system, they will opt for a total change.

Finally, revolutions happen when a government does not govern, and becomes incapable of running a society. None of these three conditions exist in today's China.

The Chinese middle class is growing in both strength and size. Despite an increasing demand for political participation and various expressions of dissatisfaction with the country's socio-economic systems, the majority of the Chinese people do not want instability and chaos, and they believe that the current path of reform and development can lead to a better life in the future.

Chinese at the grass-roots level are increasingly active in politics. Consequently, we have witnessed a growing tendency for socio-political demonstrations, which the Chinese authorities call "mass incidents." Most of these "mass incidents," however, were driven by socio-economic interest rather than political ideology. 

Such events were usually well-organized with clearly defined interests or demands. But if these needs were satisfied after a properly handled compromise was worked out, they would quiet down as quickly as they erupted without leading to large-scale social chaos.

The Chinese authorities are generally capable of maintaining effective management of society, although it is increasingly evident that there is an urgent need for substantial reform in the existing socio-political system.

As China is undergoing an unprecedented socio-political transition caused by fast development, formidable challenges will inevitably emerge both internally and externally. But the major problems are at home.

If domestic issues can be resolved or at least managed effectively through deepening reforms, China will be in a stronger position to deal with external challenges. 

The first and foremost domestic challenge is to maintain effective management and control over the massive number of government officials.

Given the ongoing socio-political transition, this challenge can only be overcome by a substantial reform of the system.

The second fundamental challenge is whether the Chinese government can overcome the increasing socio-economic disparity caused essentially by China's investment-driven development model.

In this model, distribution of wealth created by fast growth has been highly distorted in favor of those who work in financial and capital intensive industries, while those who provide technology and labor have been increasingly short-changed.

The third fundamental challenge is whether the Chinese government can redesign the culture and media management systems, and practice better information guidance. This will not only help enhance the authorities' credibility, but also minimize the space for speculation and rumors that can lead to socio-political chaos and instability. 

As the ruling party, the CPC needs to launch a campaign centered on the education of the rule of law and anti-corruption.

Party officials must fully understand that as a social consensus, the rule of law is the foundation for political stability as well as the legitimacy of the CPC's rule.

Meanwhile, Chinese need to learn from developed countries to solve sensitive socio-political issues through the congress system.

Concrete measures must be taken to bring them into the political process. For instance, the congress can adopt a hearing system over the causes and resolutions of "mass incidents" and other sensitive socio-political issues. 

These hearings can provide a platform for involved parties to voice their interests and demands in an orderly fashion under the rule of law. In doing so, public attention and complaints would be directed to and focused on the involved interest groups in various individual cases, rather than blaming the entire system. 

But it must be emphasized that all the measures discussed above are just to stabilize the current situation.

To sustain China's development and stability, it is necessary to have a top-designed long-term plan for substantial reform.

An essential factor in China's economic success is that the government has insisted on long-term plans for economic development. There is no reason why this successful practice cannot be adopted to secure success in China's socio-political transition. 

The author is professor and director of the Center on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn