Territorial disputes are shaking the East Asian international order today.

We are witnessing a chain reaction of crisis that has developed from the Northern Islands to the Dokdo Islands to the Diaoyu Islands. The South China Sea is also seeing increased tensions.

Japan is in a difficult situation because its direct involvement with three out of four of these disputes has aggravated relations with its neighbors: South Korea, China and Russia.

Tokyo's recent reshuffle of ambassadorial posts in Beijing, Seoul and Washington was a response to a feeling of alarm that its East Asian policy could be thrown into chaos.

Two deputy ministers for foreign affairs, Shinichi Nishimiya and Koro Bessho, will be sent to China and South Korea respectively. Kenichiro Sasae, a senior deputy minister for foreign affairs, will be the ambassador to the US.

But the conditions that make Tokyo's improved diplomacy so crucial are also those that make its realization so difficult. The complexity of the territorial issues seems to be outpacing the capacity of the current foreign policy team.

The territorial issues are inflammable. They arouse nationalism, leading to diplomatic predicaments. Although territorial disputes in modern times have seldom been resolved without recourse to war, nationalist sentiments obstruct diplomatic prudence and push states toward an unwanted head-to-head confrontation.

Worse, historical issues are invariably behind territorial disputes in Asia. For example, territorial claims by the Japanese government are viewed by the South Koreans as a refusal to apologize for its militarist aggression in the first half of the 20th century. For Koreans, Dokdo is a symbol of Japanese colonial expansionism.

All the disputed islands are located in the geopolitical fault line between land powers and maritime powers in the Asia-Pacific region. Any single dispute cannot be contained as an isolated affair. Even though each originates from separate historical contexts, Tokyo's policies toward Dokdo and the Diaoyu Islands are tied together and take broader strategic concerns into account.

Deploying experienced diplomats to three key posts is a desperate yet smart move. The current ambassadors, despite in-country expertise, have found it difficult to cope with the complex issue. And yet, Japan's neighbors, such as South Korea, wonder if the new foreign policy team will take a more conservative/nationalist and US-oriented stance in its East Asia policy.

The rising tides of nationalism in Japan are often interpreted as a surge of assertive and nationalist right-wing forces. The right-wing nationalists are increasingly vocal in domestic politics. But the claim that all assertive moves recently are orchestrated by the "right-turn" of the government is exaggerated. There exist various brands of Japanese conservatives, within which the right-wing nationalists are clearly the minority.

Nonetheless, the new foreign policy team should convince Seoul that Tokyo would work hard to distance itself from nationalist and conservative public moods. Given the weak political leadership, coupled with the upcoming schedule for the Lower House election, whether Tokyo will make that decision anytime soon is highly doubtful. 

There is also a mounting concern within South Korean policy circles that the increasingly conservative/nationalist Japanese government will turn more closely to the US in order to contain China. South Korea could be subsumed under a US-Japan-Korea trilateral network. But Seoul will not support that idea unless Tokyo ensures the US pivot to Asia is a way for peace and stability in the region, not a way to contain China. Japan fails to understand the probability that China, seemingly assertive, is preparing another round of "hiding its capabilities and biding its time" for the next decade, and not engaging in hegemonic competition.

Given the soaring nationalist sentiments in Japan and the ensuing strategic distrust, the rapid deterioration of South Korean-Japanese relations will most likely persist until after new leaders in both countries emerge after the upcoming elections. Any move toward a closer East Asian cooperation will be doomed to failure.

The author is dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University in Seoul. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn