Triumvirate puts China in crosshairs, but future joint accord unlikely

By Lian Degui Source:Global Times Published: 2012-11-29 1:05:06

On November 20, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh held talks in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, during which they agreed to strengthen security cooperation and naval exchanges.

Just a few weeks ago, the US, India and Japan held a trilateral dialogue in New Delhi. They exchanged ideas on a broad range of issues such as maritime security, the situations in Myanmar, Afghanistan and Africa and the South China Sea disputes, while Japan took the occasion to highlight its position over the Diaoyu Islands. Almost all the issues on the table had some link to China. Although this has not been publicly stated, China was the unspoken target of this dialogue.

The cooperation between the US, Japan and India has been rapidly developing in recent years. These three countries have their respective reasons to engage in such ways.

The trilateral cooperation is a result of the US "2+1" strategy. The US made many allies in Asia during the Cold War. All of these alliances are with ocean countries that fringe the Eurasian continent such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines, taking the containment of countries in the continent such as Soviet Union and China as the maintain target.

After the Cold War, the development of China is gradually considered as a potential threat by the US. However, as the US is suffering a relative decline, it began to advocate cooperation among its allies and thus trilateral cooperation gains a development.  

From the Japanese side, the trilateral cooperation is a continuation of Japan's value-oriented diplomacy, originally raised under the administration of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe. According to its logic, Japan should cooperate with democratic countries such as the US, Australia and India and establish an arc of freedom and prosperity. Countries in this arc share common democratic values and an ocean-going outlook.

Abe even raised the notion of a "quadrilateral security dialogue" with the US, Australia and India. Such a security dialogue mechanism was considered as a "mini-NATO" in Asia by many observers. But this was not realized when the other three countries held it would be too proactive against China. 

After Noda came to power, Japan sought to help the US' Asia pivot and has forged closer military and strategic links with South Korea, the Philippines and Australia. The Australia-India-Japan-US quadrilateral security dialogue, to some extent, has since been realized in the form of trilateral cooperation between Australia-Japan-US and India-Japan-US.   

India also wants to realize its goal of being a major player in the Indian Ocean. As the India's economy develops, its leadership aims to make it one of the strongest forces in the world. China's potential maritime development has been highlighted as a key target India needs to be guarded against. In this, it is close to the US' own goals. These overlap in dealing with the threat China poses.

Across many forums and consultations, the US-Japan-India triumvirate has been drawing closer together and has reflected their common front toward China. Deepening this cooperation will be inevitable if they persist in their traditional strategies.

This trilateral dialogue mirrors the ongoing influence of the Cold War mentality in these countries' strategic thinking. They are hoping to increase their stakes in their diplomacy with China by standing together, however, the value of such a dialogue is questionable. Abe's proposition of a "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" was aborted because the other three were not willing to overly provoke China.

On the one hand, China should be wary of countries attempting to jointly contain it. However, on the other hand, it should understand the trilateral dialogue at this stage has more of a symbolic meaning than any real practical effect.



The author is deputy director of the Department of Japanese Studies at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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