It has been reported that in December 2012, North Korea unofficially voiced to Japan its willingness to restart intergovernmental negotiations in February 2013. Japan has not responded to it yet. But considering the need for diplomatic relations between Japan and North Korea, a major breakthrough is likely to be made in bilateral relations within this year.

Back in 2012, North Korea and Japan maintained unprecedentedly active contact with each other.

In January and March 2012, Song II-ho, North Korea's ambassador for talks on normalizing Japan-North Korea diplomatic ties, discussed the decades-old abduction issue with Hiroshi Nakai, a former Japanese state minister in charge, where North Korea proposed the return of Japanese wives.

Then in April, North Korea invited a Japanese delegation to the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth, and said that it would send back the remains of Japanese who died in North Korea during World War II.

In early August, bilateral Red Cross talks were restarted after 10 years, and Japanese were permitted to visit their relatives' graves in North Korea.

In November, high-level talks between the two countries were held in Mongolia. Remarkably, Shinsuke Sugiyama, head of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, was sent to the meeting.

Another high-level talk, scheduled for early December, was delayed due to North Korea's rocket launch.

In late December, North Korea's new leader Kim Jong-un wrote a handwritten letter to a Japanese woman living in North Korea. At the same time, North Korea suggested the resumption of high-level discussions in February 2013.

The year 2012 witnessed frequent interactions between Japan and North Korea, which reflected the urgent needs of both sides.

From North Korea's perspective, improving Japan-North Korea relations is first and foremost an important part of its nuclear strategy. 

Two steps are needed before North Korea can build itself into a nuclear state. First, possessing nukes, which have been achieved through two nuclear tests, and second, forcing the international community to accept it as a nuclear state through all-round diplomacy.

North Korea has exerted great efforts to promote relations with the US, China and Russia, and improving Japan-North Korea relations is also an important part of this strategy.

North Korea also hopes to quickly receive Japan's war reparations. In the early 1990s, the two nations reached an agreement on a payment of over $10 billion in their relationship normalization talks.

In September 2002, when then Japanese prime minister Koizumi Junichiro visited North Korea, the payment issue was further discussed. However, it was later shelved due to the nuclear and abduction issues.

International sanctions over its two nuclear tests left North Korea short of foreign exchange and in desperate need of Japan's reparations to support its "military first" policy and become a prosperous and strong state.

In 2012, Japan's diplomacy ran into trouble as it reached a deadlock with China over the Diaoyu Islands, and with South Korea over Dokdo Island. Japan also faced chilled relations with Russia over the Southern Kurils dispute.

North Korea believes it can yield twice the result with half the effort if it pushes for relationship normalization talks under such circumstances.

On the other hand, Japan also has its own needs. First, the abduction issue remains an important one that influences Japan's social and political situation. Making progress in the abduction issue by negotiating with North Korea is a shortcut to electoral victory for any politician.

Second, Japan is trying to smooth ties with Russia and South Korea and focus its efforts against China. If Japan can considerably improve relations with North Korea, which has been seen as China's ally, China will suffer a huge blow.

Third, North Korea's advances in nuclear and missile programs pose a direct threat to Japan.

Although the US is in line with Japan on these issues, it has already established open dialogue with North Korea, which has prompted worries in Japan that the US may make peace with North Korea independently.

Thus, Japan is attempting to establish its own dialogue in case it becomes isolated. 

In view of the above, it will not be surprising if a summit between Japan and North Korea is held, or a dramatic agreement between two nations is reached on issues such as that of the decades-old abductions some time in 2013.

The author is a professor at the Party School of the Central Committee of CPC. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn