Italy's political crisis likely to be solved with deal between former rivals

Source:Xinhua Published: 2013-3-28 9:08:02

With Italy's political crisis dragging on more than a month after its national elections, it is appearing increasingly likely that Pier Luigi Bersani -- the nominal winner in the Feb. 24-25 vote -- will seek out some kind of tacit alliance with his biggest rival, controversial billionaire media mogul Silvio Berlusconi.

Berlusconi, a three-time prime minister, has offered to form a coalition with Bersani more than once since last month's vote. Berlusconi's offers have included the condition that he and his allies would allow Bersani to become prime minister in return for picking one of their own as president and perhaps as vice-prime minister. But the offers have been rejected each time.

Bersani's efforts to strike a deal with comedian and activist Beppe Grillo have themselves been rebuffed.

Bersani earned a plurality of votes in general elections, giving him a comfortable majority in the lower house of parliament. But Bersani, Berlusconi, and Grillo all earned large enough blocs in the Senate that it is nearly impossible for any one of them to cobble together a majority without the help of one of the others.

Despite that, Bersani says he wants to try. His plan, at least officially, is to form a "minority government" that would seek support from non-aligned senators on a case-by-case basis.

But even while he continues to insist he will try to rule with a minority government, commentators say it's increasingly likely that Bersani may seek out some kind alliance with Berlusconi's forces, though one that does not include Berlusconi himself.

The plan would work like this: Berluscon would instruct his allies in the Senate to support Bersani's platform where they have few objections to it, and to abstain on votes they oppose. In return, Bersani could adopt a few issues important to Berlusconi, including perhaps delaying or scrapping proposed conflict of interest legislation that would make it problematic for Berlusconi to control one of Europe's largest media empires while holding political office.

Berlusconi would become what political commentator and John Cabot University President Franco Pavoncello calls "the kingmaker in the shade."

There are many obstacles to such a deal, not the least of which is the fact that Bersani and Berlusconi reportedly dislike each other personally, and their supporters have been at each other's throats for years.

"Yes, it's possible that a deal like this could be struck," said political commentator and author Angelo Pasquale. "What is less possible is that it would last more than a few weeks or months. A government like that would come undone with the first big crisis, opening the door to new elections" - which could take place as soon as the second half of this year.

That scenario could be attractive to Berlusconi, who might feel he would fare better in a new vote, perhaps after Grillo's popularity has diminished. But it may prove to be a risk Bersani will have to take.

Some backers of Bersani's coalition, specifically Florence mayor Matteo Renzi (who Bersani defeated in a primary to come the official center-left candidate) and others are less hostile than Bersani at the notion of a government based on some kind of cooperation with Berlusconi, and trade unions that have been the backbone of Bersani's support have pushed the former minister to form a government "no matter what the cost."

But the biggest reason may be that this is Bersani's first -- and possibly only -- chance to become prime minister. If a new vote takes place he would no doubt be pushed aside in favor of another candidate, most likely Renzi, as the head of the center-left. And his failure to form a government despite appearing as the favorite heading into the vote, according to Pasquale, would likely hang over him for the rest of his political career.

"If he will become prime minister, it probably has to be now," Pasquale said.

Posted in: Europe

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