War unlikely, but Koreans still on cliff edge

By Zhu Zhangping Source:Global Times Published: 2013-4-14 19:18:01

Will a second Korean war break out? Probably not, though the most intense tensions on the peninsular since the sinking of the Cheonan in 2010 have brought unprecedented challenges to the countries involved. 

North Korea's constantly strengthened war rhetoric conveys a powerful message that it is deeply worried about its regime survival. The US and North Korea are still in deadlock about whether North Korea should be granted a security guarantee first or North Korea's abandonment of nuclear weapons should come first, and neither country is expected to compromise.

For a long time North Korea has believed the annual US and South Korea's joint military drills are aimed at overthrowing its regime, including the latest "Key Resolve" and "Foal Eagle" exercises, but that they do not become actual wars because of North Korea's nuclear weapon capabilities.

This belief was strengthened when the Western countries overthrew then Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) accused the US of having removed nuclear capabilities from Libya through negotiations as a precursor to invasion. That's a key reason behind North Korea's satellite launch last December and for the third nuclear test in February after the US turned a deaf ear to its messages of willingness to dialogue.

Though it knows China will do its utmost to prevent any trouble at its doorstep, North Korea is equally aware whether China is prepared to get involved in a war remains an unknown factor, and that the US has taken many unilateral military actions without other powers' consent in the past decade.

It's unlikely the North Korean regime, which is desperate to survive, will provoke a war that will equivalent to suicide, especially after its brinkmanship has worked on South Korea.

On Thursday, South Korean President Park Geun-hye for the first time proposed to hold dialogue with the North and provide humanitarian aid. Park's turning point will not only likely bring concrete material aid to the North, but also be portrayed as a big victory of the North over the South to consolidate Kim Jong-un's leadership.

On the same day Park released the sign to ease tensions, the KCNA claimed that South Korea is already in chaos and South Koreans "buy out food and daily necessities out of extreme war-phobia" and foreigners residing in the South are rushing to evacuate.

Such reports are targeted at domestic readers who lack access to other information sources, in order to arouse their confidence in Kim Jong-un's "capabilities" to defeat South Korea and the US upon the first anniversary of his taking over the top leadership.

Despite the limited chance of North Korea truly provoking a war, it is highly possible it might launch its missiles but not attack any city as it claimed, or that it could replicate an incident like the Cheonan sinking.

South Korean officials and media's judgment that North Korea is playing a psychological game has irritated the North. The North cannot end the current game with only a war of words after it has mobilized its people to prepare for a fight, or else Kim's image will be damaged at home.

North Korea's nuclear tests have already endangered China the most, through the huge nuclear radiation risks to China's Northeast, the possibility of damaging the development of the Northeast, and the provision of a justification for the US to strengthen its military presence in Asia. There is a heated debate over North Korea in China, and the US will grab the opportunity to reach as much consensus as possible on how to deal with North Korea.

North Korea might keep silent on whether it has the capability to arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead. North Korea needs to flex its nuclear muscles both abroad and at home: The stronger it is, it believes, the safer the regime is. But North Korea shouldn't forget that the US misjudgment that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction led to the Iraq War, even without UN endorsement.  

North Korea's determination to own nuclear weapons will also affect China's North Korean policy, with some even advocating abandoning North Korea. Such proposal will in turn enhance North Korea's sense of insecurity and make it believe neither China nor Russia can truly protect it. It will be more determined to own nuclear weapons, even if China promises to provide a nuclear umbrella.

Although there is no war in sight yet, bigger risks are embedded in this conflict. For a long time to come, the Korean nuclear issue will remain a bomb that can explode any time.

The author is an independent observer on international affairs. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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