Tokyo looks to Moscow for China bulwark

Source:Global Times Published: 2013-11-11 20:23:01

Japan and Russia held their first ever joint defense and diplomatic conference earlier this month, and agreed to step up military and defense cooperation as well as their existing economic and energy collaboration amid angst over Beijing's increasing presence and Pyongyang's nuclear threat.

Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, and their Russian counterparts Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu, engaged in the "two-plus-two" ministerial meeting, confirming that they would carry out military drills to fight piracy and terrorism and establish a defense consultation network.

Tokyo's proposal of the high-level diplomatic and defense talks that usually take place between close allies or intimate friends looked somewhat weird at first glance, given the long-running territorial dispute over the South Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories, between Russia and Japan. The two-plus-two mechanism has previously been used by Japan only with the US and Australia.

But Tokyo and Moscow had their reasons for this event. Tokyo is suffering from negative relationships with its Asian neighbors, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe failed to engage his Chinese and South Korean counterparts at leaders' summits due to his self-righteous nationalism and militarism.

Abe's cabinet obviously feels snubbed in Northeast Asia, where it was once somewhat dominant.

Consequently, Abe urgently wants to reassure the Japanese public and stabilize domestic politics with some diplomatic achievements.

In fact, Tokyo is fearful of a rising China a lot more than Washington. Japan has been following the US "pivot to Asia" strategy despite contradictions within their alliance, because Beijing's increasing military strength directly threatens its position.

It also has to secure its economic interests obtained through sea channels from being influenced by China's territorial claims.

Russia serves as an important link to encircle China, so Japan has an explicit intention to rein in China by creating a strategic partnership with Moscow.

In the meantime, the Kremlin has actively sought closer ties with Tokyo, to get more financial and technological support to boost economic development in the relatively backward Russian Far East.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Abe have met four times during the past six months, and Shoigu was the first Russian defense minister to visit Japan in 10 years.

Another sign of the new relationship is that an official from Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that currently Japan's most intimate friend is Russia rather than the US.

Nonetheless, such remarks might go too far, since Tokyo and Washington have been such close allies for decades as not to be easily shaken despite the temporary disturbances in the alliance. Perhaps the official made the expression only to show favor to the Kremlin and provoke Beijing.

Despite all the seemingly intimate interactions between Tokyo and Moscow since Abe took power, the two-plus-two mechanism could just be counted as an outlier in their bilateral relations, which are still not likely to take a smooth path.

Save for agreement on future consultations aiming at fortifying peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, the meeting did not reach substantial results.

Beside Moscow's apprehension over the deployment of a US missile network in Japan, the territorial dispute also poses an obstacle for the two sides in developing stable relations.

The two countries showed the "highest aspiration" to solve the row over the South Kuril Islands and sign an agreement resolving the issue. But it is, as yet, no more than an aspiration.

Putin, renowned for his "hard man" image, will not easily compromise.

The president must show a tough stance on the territorial controversy to maintain full support from the electorate. 

The Abe administration is quite familiar with Russia's position.

However, as Japan is keen to expand its influence over Northeast Asia and curb an increasingly powerful China, Tokyo will work very hard to prevent the dispute from becoming a serious obstacle to such high-level meetings in the future. 

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Wang Xiaonan, based on an interview with Li Shanjin, an expert on Northeast Asian affairs based in Beijing. wangxiaonan@globaltimes.com.cn

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