Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Strongman politics serves as a linchpin of neo-authoritarianism, along with modernization-oriented reform and opening-up policy. Gradualist democratization cannot be achieved without strong leaders. It is powerful leadership that helps generate adequate courage, wisdom and capability to delegate power, make breakthroughs, and cleave a path of gradualist democratization with Chinese characteristics.

In numerous critical historical moments, many countries have missed opportunities of peaceful transition to democracy due to lack of a strong leadership and thus paid a excessively high prices for reform. This is what China should try to refrain from. It is historically lucky to have a strongman during a nation's transformation era.

Neo-authoritarianism is historically necessary but not inevitable because it rides on strongman politics instead of institutionalization.

Its launch, development, further exploration and even whether its system can be consolidated and improved depend on a strongman-style leadership.

Reform at the neo-authoritarian stage suffers from two risks: Authority may dispel and reform may disappear. China's former leader Deng Xiaoping was profoundly aware of this jeopardy in the nascent stage of reform and we have also perceived it from decades of practices. Therefore powerful actions are direly needed to propel reform, or we might end up facing stagnation or even move backward in our modernization endeavor.

Neo-authoritarian reform will likely evolve along three directions.

First, the current reform and opening-up will be further deepened in a comprehensive way toward gradualist democratized reform.

Second, reform at this stage can bog down, giving rise to corruption, social inequality and abject poverty, which may eventually lead to an upheaval or revolution as a result of the ensuing public indignation and discontent.

The third potential alternative is a reversal from the power delegation driven and guaranteed by centralization to power retaking that will gradually develop into totalitarianism and even fascism.

Theoretically speaking, these outcomes could happen since we lack an effective institution to ensure that the latter two possibilities will never occur.

However, we are more likely to achieve neo-authoritarian reform judging by our national conditions. Strong leadership has appeared in China and the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee announced the Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms. China is gathering momentum to fight corruption and build a clean government. As long as we proceed along the path of comprehensive reform and opening-up, totalitarianism and fascism will never find a foothold.

It is, nevertheless, worth noting that the future is brimmed with uncertainties even though we have scored some achievements in the current neo-authoritarian reform. We might be exposed to another hazard in that social turmoil will arise if we fail to shift to gradualist democratic reform in due time. By then whether we can make it into democratic reform will be the most intractable challenge.

Ushering neo-authoritarian reform directly into gradualist democratic reform couldn't be achieved in Deng Xiaoping's era when reform was in its infancy and economy was yet to take off.

Therefore, Deng adopted a wide spectrum of measures to prevent backsliding from reform, the most important one of which was his 1992 southern tour.

We can refer to Deng's approach to make a smooth transition from neo-authoritarian reform to a stable gradualist democratization road in the foreseeable future. The historical value of neo-authoritarian reform will be fully displayed in this way, contributing to China's democratization and modernization.

Neo-authoritarianism serves as an indispensable transition. Only by advancing the reform and opening-up in this stage and then promoting it to democratization will China realize modernization.

The author is director of the Political Science Department at the Central Institute of Socialism and a contract research fellow of China Society of Economic Reform. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn