Creative countermeasures needed to deal with Manila’s S.China Sea schemes

By Zhou Fangyin Source:Global Times Published: 2014-4-7 23:13:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

After over a year's preparation, the Philippine government has submitted 4,000 pages of evidence to an international tribunal, challenging China's legitimate claim to the South China Sea within the nine-dash line and declaring its "sovereignty" over some isles including the Ren'ai Reef.

The Chinese government and scholars have rebuked Manila's attempt to seek international arbitration on this issue, and most of these criticisms can hold water.

But China needs to be more aware of the real challenge imposed by Manila. It is trying to push forward the case, though an illegitimate basis, to reverse its disadvantaged position. If the international tribunal accepts the case, Manila will be encouraged to hype up the "legitimacy" and "rationality" of such an attempt. China's stand and claim will be put at a disadvantage if Manila gets such an endorsement from the international tribunal.

Whether international arbitration should be employed over the South China Sea dispute is not only an issue concerning the applicability of international laws, but represents the political bout between both nations.

Manila's ultimate purpose is greater than acquiring a favorable verdict from the international tribunal, and China should also realize that its countermeasures must be more varied besides arguing in terms of international laws, otherwise China might lose ground in the future.

Over the past year, when Manila was preparing for the application of international arbitration, China has been facing growing pressure from the Philippines. It is obvious that Manila does not expect a decisive verdict once and for all, but is trying to limit the possible approaches of addressing the South China Sea dispute for its own good.

If Manila could have its way, China's consistent advocacy for a framework of bilateral talks would become much less effective. China's legitimate claims based on historical and legal causes would even become unconvincing arguments.

What Manila wants is that with the facilitation of the international pressure, it can force China to play by its rules.

In order to gain the upper hand, China has to break through the path paved by the Philippines. Manila is setting up a trap, and China cannot get away unless it can think out of the box.

China needs to carry forward three policies to make sure the situation in the South China Sea will not be unfavorable to China.

First, China needs to prove its resolution about defending its territorial integrity and sovereignty more explicitly in front of the countries such as the Philippines, and let them know giving up these inordinate ambitions is the wise choice.

In this case, China must have the courage and determination to push it forward till the desired effect can be achieved.

Second, China must make the Philippines aware that it will pay a price for constantly challenging China. Manila should be more clearly shown what cost it has to pay if it insists on taking its own course.

Third, China must also restrain itself from aggressive moves, showing Manila that bilateral talks can lead to a more productive future, and confrontation will not.

Chinese diplomacy needs to take a lesson from the Philippines' effort of seeking international arbitration. China must realize that strategic restraint, which sometimes can reassure its neighbors, but can also lead to some serious consequences, in which the most critical one is the corrosion of China's strategic deterrent. This is part of the reason why some neighboring countries continue disturbing China without fear or concern.

Finding a way to sustain a balance among reciprocal cooperation, strategic deterrent and appropriate placation is a long-standing problem for China. Chinese diplomacy needs more creative and suitable policies.

The author is a professor at the Guangdong Research Institute for International Strategies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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