Economic ‘new normal’ needs full context

By George N. Tzogopoulos Source:Global Times Published: 2015-1-26 19:33:29

The participation of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in the Davos World Economic Forum and his keynote speech have both symbolic and substantial importance.

The symbolic one is that the presence of China in this forum is now much more active, outlining once again the existing room for increased international cooperation, with China playing a critical role. But the substantial role is more important.

Li's speech in Davos came at a time when many Western analysts and media have expressed their skepticism about the future of China's economy. Data for 2014 suggests that its growth rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than Beijing's predictions, at 7.4 percent. The IMF outlook estimates a further slowdown for 2015, expecting the country's GDP growth to slip to 6.8 percent. Within this context, the wide audience receives messages summarizing that "China has seen its worst performance for 25 years." Fortune magazine goes further by assessing that "The worst has yet to come."

With his speech at Davos, Li attempted to appease fears by acknowledging reality and explaining Beijing's economic arguments. The transformation of China's growth engine is a time-consuming process requiring patience and a reorientation of economic targets.

Li explained the significance of implementing structural reforms, creating new job positions and supporting innovation as well as entrepreneurship.  An economic policy aiming at boosting domestic demand within China is certainly different from the export-oriented and strong-stimulus-based model. The adaptation to new standards includes risks and the finding of unpredictable obstacles.

The good news for China is that current economic changes are taking place under a systematic government initiative.

No unexpected development has led the country to do so. No emergency measures are being taken. In contrast, when this happened with the global financial crisis in 2008, Beijing responded in an efficient way through its immense investment program.

In that regard, every comment made on China's future economic development should start from the organized and coordinated nature of economic shifts.

The main bet for the Chinese leadership is not to guarantee an explosive growth rate but a sustainable and balanced one. Speaking in Davos, Li has been sincere in publicly accepting that his country needs more time to achieve modernization and solve inequality problems. A society can be happy only if equality is protected and the potential of life is increased. In spite of the existing room for more progress, the first signs of the gap closing between the urban and rural populations in China are encouraging.

China and the West often tend to have different interpretations of the same stories. The "New Normal" concept is used in the rhetoric of Chinese politicians and academics as an explanation of Beijing's new strategy which does not look in the short term but at the long term aiming at improving living conditions and increasing the supply of public goods and services. However, many Western politicians and analysts consider the "New Normal" logic as an indication that Beijing's good times allegedly belong to the past.

As times runs, the "New Normal" concept will dominate Western media discourse, leading to various observations of China's economy and its impact on world financial stability. But no comprehensive understanding can be reached if current developments are not put into a wider context. As The Economist has concluded, "it is worth remembering that the Chinese economy is more than 25 times bigger than it was in 1990."

The author is a lecturer at the European Institute in Nice, France. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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