Japanese infrastructure funds can provide healthy competition for AIIB

Source:Global Times Published: 2015-5-25 21:58:02

"Japan ups ante in race to boost influence in Asia with cash," is how the AP described Japan's response to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), after the country announced on Thursday that it will provide $110 billion in aid for Asian infrastructure projects over the next five years. The announcement was released when the AIIB was holding a meeting of founder members in Singapore to arrange operational details. Many see Japan's program as the beginning of a more intense competition between the two largest economies in the region.

Yet the investment should not be regarded simply as a fierce contention. Due to the complicated backdrop, it might as well become a healthy competition.

Since the US launched its strategy of pivot to Asia that apparently targets China, Japan is actually facing a dilemma. It wants to cooperate with Washington to contain the rise of China. Therefore, it has chosen to sacrifice its potential interests and not to join the AIIB so as to coordinate with the US' grand strategy.

But it remains reluctant to give up its share of the economic pie provided by China. So it also turned its eyes to the infrastructure investment like Beijing to make up for the losses of not being a founding member of the AIIB.

Japan has its own advantages. Its rich experience, proven technology and high-quality products are appealing and attractive. However, given its sluggish economic development in recent years, whether it will keep its promise in the long run remains a question.

In the meantime, China enjoys a vigorous economic growth, strong investment ability, as well as price advantages. In a word, each option provided by China and Japan has its own pros for nations looking for aid.

Recipient countries could therefore choose based on their own level of economic development and demands for distinct projects. But in any case, $110 billion is far from meeting the actual needs of infrastructure investment in Asia.

According to the Asian Development Bank, the overall investment demand in the region is estimated to be $8 trillion from 2010 to 2020.

That said, neither a single country nor an organization can fulfill the task single-handedly, which means there will probably be more cooperation than competition.

Japan's investment might also play a constructive role in improving the quality of Chinese products, environmental awareness, and transparency of cooperation with recipients, as well as the transformation of domestic manufacturing industries. Where there is a competitor, there is a way to become stronger. It is not a zero-sum game. It doesn't mean that recipients will have to pick a side. The scale of demand is enormous out there, the need to expand infrastructure is constantly growing, and let's just wait and see who can do better.

When Tokyo turned its back on the AIIB, it started suffering from pressure from its financial sector, which voiced concerns that this was a misjudgment. The White House might have also realized that it acted wildly in trying to thwart the establishment of the AIIB, which embarrassed itself and caused it to miss opportunities. The two allies are now watching, yet have never made a single statement about definitely not joining the bank.

If the AIIB can do an excellent job, it will become increasingly attractive. And it will only be a matter of time for Japan and the US to seek a partnership with it.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Li Aixin based on an interview with Hu Lingyuan, a professor with the Center for Japanese Studies at Fudan University. liaixin@globaltimes.com.cn

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