The development of Sino-US ties has met with some negative views among well-known US scholars on China. For instance, David M. Lampton believes that "a tipping point in China-US relations is upon us," David Shambaugh predicts that rule of CPC is going to collapse, and according to Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, it is time for the US to get serious about balancing China. In sharp contrast, the "new type of major power relations between China and the US" proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping seems not to be a popular concept among US policy researchers, while US think tanks seem to indicate that a game change to Sino-US ties will occur in the coming two or three years.

Is the bilateral relationship really coming to a tipping point? Not necessarily.

Unlike either Chinese or US relationships with other major powers such as Russia, Japan, India and European countries, a key characteristic of Beijing-Washington ties is their high complexity. China and the US share a variety of common interests in a broad spectrum, many of which are of great significance and in important fields. The nature of the bilateral relationship is both competitive and cooperative. Therefore, when some policies are adopted, they will bring both benefits and risks.

Many other bilateral relationships among major powers are chiefly focused on practical interests. But Sino-US ties are often been analyzed in a strategic sense, as they relate to the transfer of the power in the international system.

Moreover, quite a few third-party factors are involved in China-US relations. Many countries are overstating and utilizing the divergences between Beijing and Washington strategically, which blurred the nature of the bilateral relationship. Besides, both China and the US play a significant role in regional and global affairs, bilateral relations matter to the international pattern and regional order. Therefore, the Sino-US ties are a complex of substantial quantities of factors, which influence the big picture in different ways. That is why we can always hear different views. 

Given this complexity, it is hard to find a simple orientation for the development of the relations. But it proves that the "new type of major power relations between China and the US" is more pragmatic and wise than the concept that "China is a stakeholder" or that both countries should realize "strategic reassurance."

Due to a large number of influential factors in the Sino-US relationship, it's neither easy for it to achieve a huge improvement nor slip backward.

Since 2008, both countries have experienced the global financial crisis, US pivot to the Asia-Pacific, the South China Sea issue, the Diaoyu Islands dispute, the initiatives of TPP, "One Belt, One Road," and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Bilateral ties have altered to a certain extent, but without any structural changes. Thus, there is no such a thing as a "tipping point." If there has to be one, it must be that of how Americans recognize the bilateral ties.

So far, the efficiency of US rebalance toward Asia is lowering, and the push for the TPP is not going well, while Beijing-led "One Belt, One Road" and the AIIB are striding forward faster than expected. The US therefore feels like it has lost control and patience. Under such conditions, it is possible for Washington to adopt hard-line strategies toward China in certain fields, but this will not bring any tipping point. The White House will find it hard to better contain China's influence than the past few years with its pivot to Asia strategy.

The "tipping point" is not a reality, but the idea worth attention. When such a mentality appeared among certain people, both sides should put more efforts into consolidating the basis of their ties. The idea of the "tipping point" is a test for the Sino-US new type of major power relationships. If we could pass the test, the bilateral ties will become more mature and stronger to stand up to history.

The author is a professor at the Guangdong Research Institute for International Strategies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn