Investors turn to daily news for guide to gold

By Liu Zhun Source:Global Times Published: 2015-6-13 0:33:01

Illustration: Peter C. Espina/GT



Facing an economic downturn, China has been enduring declining GDP growth since last year. But it doesn't mean the much acclaimed "China speed" will be in a slump from now on. The Chinese stock market took the baton last July, and surged to the sky.

Ending the bloody seven years of a bear market, the market has seen stocks soar, which will probably herald the biggest bull market in China's bourse history.

In the past 12 months, the Shanghai composite index has increased by 150 percent, and the value of Chinese stocks is about to reach $10 trillion. The once floundering market has not only drawn a large number of newcomers into the market, but also garnered keen attention from the international community. Recent months have seen over 1 million individual investors opening trading accounts on average each week.

The country is in a crazy run. People who don't invest in stocks are derided by their friends for being out of date, and all the chitchat is about to select blue-chip shares and potential stocks where everyone seems to have some "inside information."

But real masters don't believe in inside information to time the market. Decades of experiences in the ups and downs of the Chinese stock market make them trust only one thing: Xinwen Lianbo, or "news simulcast" in English, an everyday news program produced by China Central Television and also aired simultaneously by most provincial and local TV channels at 7 pm.

A 78-year-old granny in Wuhan, Hubei Province in central China, has managed to increase her wealth from 20,000 yuan ($3223.3) to 600,000 yuan in two decades by investing in the stock market. This senior investor said her key is "watching Xinwen Lianbo every day and sticking to national policies."

What's more, a senior stock analyst in Nanjing even came up with a "Xinwen Lianbo Sentiment Index" to track how the State news show causes regular movements in the Chinese stock market. According to the analyst, in-depth reports about government decisions on a specific field in the program will usually trigger a surge in relevant stocks. High-frequency key words in the show also have something to do with the broad market. This May, his index successfully predicted a sharp fall.

Xinwen Lianbo is the most widely viewed show in China. But ordinary people usually find it dull for its solemn rhetoric and political publicity. Most news on the program is themed around top leaders and administrative affairs.

But it doesn't stop the program owning a valuable use: Helping China observers, entrepreneurs, investors to feel the pulse of the country. Insightful audiences with deep knowledge about how Chinese politics, economy and society work are capable of sensing the implications of the program, which might herald all sorts of changes of national policies. Therefore, the program is a keyhole through which experts can peer at the next steps of the government.

In China, the national policy is usually the decisive factor in all walks of life. This might give some insights to most individual investors who always follow suit and act slowly. Instead of trying to figure something out from those complicated curves and indexes or prying some unconvincing intel from so-called inside informants, you can come to the daily news show to dig your gold.

The author is a Global Times reporter. liuzhun@globaltimes.com.cn



Posted in: Viewpoint

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