Japan eyes rivalry with China in Central Asia as Abe strengthens position

By Chen Yang Source:Global Times Published: 2015-10-30 0:23:01

According to reports, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe paid a whirlwind tour to Mongolia and then to five countries in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, during October 22-28. This was the first visit by a Japanese prime minister to Central Asia in nine years and meanwhile the first time of visiting the five countries in one trip.

Geopolitically, Central Asia sits at a special location. But Japanese politicians didn't realize its importance until late 1990s, and the official intergovernmental exchanges with Central Asian countries started in 2004 when then foreign minister Yoriko Kawaguchi launched the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue. The mechanism prompted the 2006 visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan by then prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. But as none of his successors kept office for long, there had been no further progress in Japan's relations with Central Asian countries. In this sense, Abe's tour shows the stability of his government, which has been rare in Japan.

Nonetheless, there are still disturbing factors. Despite the majority held the Diet by the ruling coalition of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito Party, Japanese public outrage over Abe's forcing through of the security bills lingers. And whether the LDP and Komeito can maintain a majority in the next upper house election in 2016 will decide the trajectory of the Abe administration. Hence less than 10 months from the election, Abe will endeavor to deflect the public attention to the progress in domestic and foreign affairs. His Central Asia trip is one such effort.

After being formally re-elected as the LDP president in late September, Abe unveiled three new policy "arrows" that include a strong economy, support for child rearing and improved social security. After the cabinet reshuffle on October 7, he created a Minister in Charge of Promoting Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens to coordinate and implement economic policies, marking the Abe administration started carrying out its new economic policies. Abe's tour of Central Asia means that foreign activities are now put on his agenda.

Later on, Abe will play the diplomacy at a series of international occasions that include the G20 Leaders Summit on November 15-16 in Antalya, Turkey, the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting on November 18-19 in the Philippines, and the G7 Summit on May 26-27 next year in Shima, Mie Prefecture, Japan. In particular, the summit of leaders from China, Japan and South Korea, set to be resumed on Sunday after a three-year suspension, marks Japan's improved relationship with China and South Korea and will help boost Abe's approval rate.

Apart from diplomatic concerns, more importantly Abe intends to use economic investment to strive for abundant resources in Central Asia in his trip and thereby hold back the China-proposed Silk Road Economic Belt and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

After all, Japan is short of resources but rich in capital and technology. In this sense, Abe took representatives from 50 companies with him to strengthen the bond with Central Asian countries through government aids and company investment.

However, Japan can hardly compete with China in terms of both geographical position and trade size. Japan's distance from Central Asian countries creates some difficulties for fostering bilateral trade. Statistics showed that in 2014, China's trade volume with Central Asian countries reached $45 billion while that of Japan stood at only $2 billion. Besides, as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are all the AIIB founding members, Japan will hardly achieve what it expects even if it enhances its clout in Central Asia.

Since he resumed office in 2012, Abe has been promoting "values diplomacy" to get closer ties with other countries. This was reiterated during his latest trip. Ironically, the Abe administration is tearing down democracy and the rule of law domestically by passing bills through the parliament through his electoral majority even though some members of the public are against them.

Earlier this month, the opposition called on to hold deliberations on economy, trade and the US base in Okinawa. But later Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga rejected the opposition, citing Abe's overseas trip.

This shows that the Diet, gripped by the ruling coalition, is not performing its functions to monitor the government's actions.

Abe has set multiple aims for his trip to Central Asia and the outcomes are not inconceivable.

The author is a PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Sociology at Toyo University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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