India, China can learn from each other’s varied growth models

By Liu Zongyi Source:Global Times Published: 2016-3-22 23:28:01

While the Chinese economy is slowing down after entering the "new normal," India, under Narendra Modi's governance, has witnessed a rapid economic growth in recent years. Speculations that "the Indian economy will surpass that of China" and "India will become a new engine for the world economy" are frequently heard in the international public opinion. Some even conjecture that the Chinese model is inferior to that of India.

Hyping the Indian economy's superiority, Indian officials and the Western media are instigating international investors to direct their capitals from Beijing to New Delhi, giving impetus to Indian economic growth. However, such hype has limited effects as profit-oriented investors try to lower their transaction costs as well. The Indian market, be it in scale, profit margin or business environment, cannot compete with that of China. Arguing the differences between Chinese and Indian models, Western scholars are attempting to take advantage of ideology to deny the efficiency of Chinese political and economic institutions.

Chinese economy and society, undergoing transitions, are still exploring new paths for development. There is no fixed model for China's development, thus it is impossible to make comparisons between Chinese and Indian models.

India's GDP growth has reached and even surpassed that of China in the last two years. While maintaining high-speed economic growth, the Indian fiscal deficit decreased to 4 percent, and its Consumer Price Index dropped to 5.4 percent in 2015. However, New Delhi's economic achievements can be attributed to the falling oil prices and the changed methods to calculate GDP. For the Indian government, a one-dollar drop in oil price means a decrease of 65 billion rupees ($975 million) in  spending on oil imports and a reduction of $9 billion in government subsidies on crude oil.

Since he came into office as prime minister, Modi has boosted the morale of the Indian economy. However, Modi's economic reform has achieved little progress, which is known in the international community. The falling oil price will still provide India with years of opportunities to develop its economy. If New Delhi can seize the opportunity to promote major reforms, its long-term economic development will have a solid foundation.

There is no need to compare the Chinese economic development mode with that of India. Despite mistakes and social problems, China has seen sound economic development since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Chinese economy is five times the size of India's and its GDP per capita four times. China's Human Development Index far exceeds that of India as well. Even if New Delhi has surpassed Beijing in its economic growth rate, the economic gap between the two is still wide.

Gujarat was regarded as "India's Guangdong" when under Modi's governance. Apart from rapid economic growth, Gujarat has followed a similar economic development path to China. Since elected as prime minister, Modi has introduced similar policies to China in attracting foreign investments, developing infrastructure and encouraging exports. The Modi administration is now attempting to reform the outdated rules in land, labor, tax and other areas to attract more foreign investments. However, Modi's reform plan is faced with tremendous obstacles.

New Delhi's economic reform is impeded by its political institutions and party systems. Certain interest groups carry more weight than Indian politicians. Sophisticated party-to-party competitions have seriously influenced the nation's executive ability.

However, India's political institutions have helped maintain a stable state structure in the last 70 years. Despite separatist activities, India's integrity and overall stability have not been challenged. India's economy is developing slowly but steadily. In comparison with other South Asian nations, India has chosen a relatively more successful development road.

On the other hand, China, in spite of its high efficiency, has made a few wrong decisions in the past 60 years. The two nations can learn from each other.

As ancient civilizations, both China and India want to realize their economic takeoffs and catch up with developed Western countries. This requires reforms. In international competition, the key to success is to reform and find the most suitable development path for the nation.

The author is a senior fellow of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and a visiting fellow of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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