America's primacy simply cannot survive, but for America to come round to accepting this will be a very traumatic, conflictual and long-drawn out process.

The West is divided and fragmenting. The authority of the US is in decline, no longer able to get its way as it once was.

History demonstrates that China has a remarkable ability to reinvent itself in a manner that no other country or civilization has succeeded in doing; a testament to the strength, resilience and dynamism of Chinese civilization and its governing capacity.

There is a profound belief in the West that a one-party system is unsustainable because it is incapable of reform. That is not born out by the history of the CPC. It has, more than any other party in the world, displayed a remarkable ability to reform.

Two lessons from the China-US Alaska meet: first, there is a new sense of Chinese confidence; second, US is coming to the painful realization that China is now its equal. But it cannot accept what is already a historical reality.

Political reform is part of the solution to Hong Kong's malaise. But socio-economic reform on a scale that hitherto has been sadly lacking is at least as important.

What drew Europe westward is now drawing it eastward: the centre of gravity of the global economy, once in the west, is now in the east.

The extraordinary events in Washington DC will mark a fundamental change in how the world sees the US. The riot, the uprising, the insurrection, the attempted coup, call it what you will, serves only to underline the gravity of the political crisis that now confronts the US. This event was no aberration: on the contrary, it is a symptom of the country's worst political crisis since the Civil War. One fears it is more a beginning than an end.

China has passed with flying colours, the West has failed miserably. 2020 will be seen as marking the Great Transition, a growing recognition around the world that the baton of global leadership is passing to China.

Americans are now even asking whether its democracy can survive. The outlook can only be described as bleak. Almost 300,000 people have died from the pandemic and the number is rising rapidly. Half the population say they will refuse the vaccine. The economy has been hobbled. The real wages of many will fall. Unemployment is predicted to reach around 7 percent. The financial crisis led to Trump. Where might America find itself in the wake of the pandemic?

This cold war will not be a rerun of the previous one between the US and the Soviet Union. Much as the hawks in the Trump administration would like to reinvent such a world by means of a complete economic decoupling, that is beyond them.

But over the last two years, China has shifted from a passive to a proactive role. The country is increasingly becoming a maker and shaper of globalization. The two most obvious examples of China's new role are the formation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road initiative.

Given the UK's history as the premier imperial power prior to the United States, and the subsequent closeness of its relationship with the US, this is an event of great historical and geo-political significance.

If the US refuses to join Chinese-inspired institutions like the AIIB, the more isolated it will find itself. With each day that passes, it becomes more likely that the old institutional structure will decline and decay, to be increasingly replaced by institutions like the AIIB.