Too late for Fed to cut rates if US imposes further tariffs: expert

By Zhang Dan Source:Global Times Published: 2019/12/12 21:53:40

Photo: VCG


If the US decides to put a fresh batch of tariffs on tens of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods planned for Sunday, it would be too late for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and American consumers may not be able to afford the costs of the US-initiated trade war, experts said after the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged.

The Fed decided to hold the federal funds target rate between 1.5-1.75 percent.

The decision came before the US' decision about whether to impose a new round of 15 percent tariffs on about $160 billion in Chinese goods, including cellphones, laptops and toys.

Those items are highly related to people's daily lives and can't be replaced by goods from other parts of the world, Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China International, told the Global Times on Thursday.

"If the US imposes the tariffs, the burden of American consumers will increase due to higher prices. This will hurt Americans' consumption capacity," Cao noted, adding that bad debt is already showing up on US credit cards as many Americans choose to borrow and spend. 

Although US GDP grew 2.1 percent in the third quarter, its total factor productivity is decreasing and traditional manufacturing sectors are experiencing a downturn, Cao added. 

The US manufacturing sector in November slipped back to the lowest level since 2012, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which said the US November PMI sank to 48.1 from 48.3 in October.

"If the US imposes tariffs on Sunday, it's likely to have a huge impact on the US economy. In order to stabilize its economy at that time, it would be too late for the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and the effect of doing so would not be great," Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times.


Posted in: ECONOMY,BIZ FOCUS

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