Trump impeachment won't affect trade talks

By Ma Jingjing Source:Global Times Published: 2019/12/19 18:18:41

Political drama shows US is an unreliable partner: experts


U.S. President Donald Trump delivers a speech at the Economic Club of New York in New York, the United States, Nov. 12, 2019. Photo:Xinhua



The impeachment of US President Donald Trump by US Congress will have no direct impact on China-US trade talks, but as the US is shifting focus to 2020 presidential election, the China-US trade war is expected to drag on if further breakthroughs can't be made in the first half of 2020, experts said.

The US House of Representatives voted on Wednesday (US time) to impeach Trump for alleged high crimes and misdemeanors, paving the way for Trump to become the third US president in history to be impeached.

Experts interviewed by the Global Times said that the impeachment process won't affect Asian stocks and currency markets, as there is almost no chance to get enough votes in the Republican-led Senate to convict Trump.

"If Trump were to be impeached - slim to no chance - the US would shift its attention domestically for at least a year. This will likely alleviate trade war pressure on China, which is good news for the markets," Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University in Beijing, told the Global Times on Thursday.

The Chinese mainland's A-share market is supported by its own economic fundamentals, and it's unlikely to be affected by external issues, Cao said.

On Thursday, A shares remained largely unchanged, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing flat at 3,017.07 points and the Shenzhen Composite Index edging up 0.02 percent to 10,296.29 points.

Indian and South Korean shares also gained, while Japan and Australia markets posted small losses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 28,239.28 points on Wednesday, up nearly 10,000 points since Trump's election victory in 2016. The S&P 500 finished at 3,191.14 points on Wednesday, gaining 49 percent.

"Whether Trump will be removed from the office or not, it's inevitable for Wall Street to face volatility ahead. It's too high," Chen Fengying, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, told the Global Times on Thursday.

Whatever the US presidential election result is, China will continue to carry out reforms, for example optimizing its business environment and opening-up, Chen said, noting that this is for China's own high-quality economic growth after 2020, not a case of making concessions to the US.

China-US trade talks should be continuously pushed forward based on the recent progress, Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in Beijing, told the Global Times.

China and the US have agreed on the text of a phase one trade agreement based on the principles of equality and mutual respect, according to a statement issued by the Chinese side on Friday.

As US politicians start to shift their focus to the 2020 election, if more positive results can't be made in the first half next year, the trade war may continue, Bai said.

Cao said the core issue for China to solve China-US trade problems is economic development. "With its economy size still lagging behind the US, China should step up efforts in upgrading industries and innovation," he said.

Posted in: ECONOMY

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