Workers operate a robot on a production line in a glass factory in Qinhuangdao, North China's Hebei Province. Photo: CNS

China's GDP per capita is set to reach $10,000 in 2019, with real GDP growth rate above 6 percent, but the country still needs to endeavor to avoid the "middle-income trap" to sustain economic expansion, experts said. 

GDP growth after correcting for inflation was 6.2 percent in the first three quarters of 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, but nominal growth before the adjustment for inflation was still 7.9 percent, Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications, told the Global Times on Sunday.

"If GDP continues to grow at around 8 percent, chances are very good for GDP per capita to sail past $10,000 mark, despite the depreciation of the Chinese currency," Lian said.  

In 2018, China's GDP per capita stood at 64,644 yuan ($9,240), increasing 6.1 percent compared with 2017, according to statistics from the NBS, but the figure is still below the world average of $11,312 from the World Bank.

"Per capita GDP of $10,000 will put China among the middle to upper-middle income countries in the world," Tian Yun, vice president of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, told the Global Times.

"It is also a step forward to reach the high-income level at around $12,000 GDP per capita," Tian said. "Considering the size of the country and the speed at which it reached this point, this is a historical achievement."

But challenges persist for China to reach the next milestone. If China wants to push its global rankings to join the high-income nations, it will need to avoid the 'middle-income trap', Lian said.  

Many other countries among the emerging markets have fallen into the trap, as they were unable to maintain a high speed of growth after reaching the middle-income level, some due to a lack of technological innovation to climb up the global value chain, and some due to insufficient growth in consumption, according to Lian. 

China's labor cost has been rising with its increased income level, which might slow down the economic growth rate and require the economy to constantly upgrade. The key to maintain the current stable growth is to drive China's consumption in the next decade, especially by means of urbanization, Lian said. 

China's urbanization rate reached 59.59 percent by the end of 2018, and the number of cities reached 672, compared with only 132 at the end of 1949, a report from the NBS said. 

"There is a huge potential in the process of urbanization in increasing demand for infrastructure and boosting people's spending power," Lian said, adding that rising domestic consumption can support moderate to high-speed economic growth.

China's GDP per capita is expected to reach $12,000 at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), Tian predicted.