Crude prices surge after US strike

By Zhang Dan Source:Global Times Published: 2020/1/5 21:38:40

Geopolitical flare-up strains global market


An oilfield in Daqing, Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, in May Photo: IC

The deadly US airstrike that killed top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Iraq on Friday would force China to seek more energy resources and reform its import structure in the longer term, though consumers in the world's largest oil importer are likely to face soaring oil prices in the short term, experts said. 

The shares of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the world's third-largest oil company and a leading player in China's petroleum industry, closed at 5.95 yuan ($0.85) on Friday, up 1.36 percent. Shares of another state-owned oil giant, Sinopec China Petrochemical Corp (SINOPEC), closed at 5.27 yuan, up 1.93 percent.

Oil prices were up about 3 percent on Friday following the US strike, with international benchmark Brent crude up 3.6 percent to $68.67 per barrel.

It is reasonable for the Chinese energy companies' stocks to rise in response to the surging oil price because the US-Iran tensions could cause oil supply shortages, Chen Zhanming, deputy professor of the School of Applied Economics at Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Sunday. 

If the next move by Iran or the US intensifies the tensions, global oil prices and oil-related stocks will continue to rise, Chen noted. 

However, "Chinese consumers will have to face soaring oil prices," Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times. 

He noted that every $1 rise in crude oil prices costs Chinese consumers more than $3 billion a year. Lin also expressed concern about possible inflation to be triggered by higher oil prices. 

According to China's General Administration of Customs, the nation's crude oil imports in 2018 totaled 462 million tons, up 10.1 percent, with Russia as the largest source, exporting 71.49 million tons of oil to China. The country's external dependence ratio for oil was 69.8 percent in 2018, according to the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute.

Oil from Iraq and Iran accounts for 10-20 percent of China's oil imports, according to Chen, so at present, there won't be much impact on China's oil imports.

But the core issue is the oil transportation channels from the Middle East to China, both Chen and Lin agreed. 

"Of China's imported oil, about half of it comes from the Middle East, mostly via the Strait of Hormuz," Lin said, noting the escalating Middle East tensions may have negative influence on China's energy security in the short term. 

To combat fluctuations in oil prices triggered by geopolitics, Chen said China will strive to develop new energies, namely electric vehicles, wind power and solar power. 

Increasing oil reserves and diversifying oil sources are ways for China to ensure its oil supply, Lin said. 

Global stocks fell after the airstrike with the Dow Jones industrial average down 0.8 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 falling 0.7 percent. 

"However, China's A-share market remains bullish, with the Shanghai stock index above 3,000, as a horizon line for the future. Iran's tensions with the US is unlikely to influence China's bull market," Li Daxiao, chief economist at Shenzhen-based Yingda Securities, told the Global Times. 

He noted that the tensions will not have a huge influence on the global economy since the conflict has not escalated to "a war."

Posted in: INDUSTRIES,MARKETS

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