Possible delay of China's 'two sessions' may indicate lower GDP target: economists

By Wang Jiamei and Zhou Zheng Source:Global Times Published: 2020/2/17 23:06:46

Photo: VCG


A potential rescheduling of China's biggest annual political gathering that sets the political and economic agenda for the year could indicate that top policymakers could lower economic targets this year, including GDP growth, though the adjustment might be within a limited range, analysts said on Monday. 

A potential delay in the sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the top advisory body, collectively known as the "two sessions", would also indicate the continuation of the top-down battle against the coronavirus epidemic and the need for policymakers to assess the potential impact on the economy, analysts noted.

The two sessions are China's biggest annual political gathering, which usually lists economic targets and sets a tone for economic policies for the year.

If the meetings are postponed, the release of the government work report, which contains proposed economic goals in many areas including GDP and employment, will likely be delayed, Sheng Songcheng, former director general of the Financial Survey and Statistics Department at the People's Bank of China, who was also a deputy of the 11th National People's Congress, told the Global Times on Monday. Since there are no deputies to discuss, make changes and pass these goals, there is no need to release them, Sheng said. 

"Due to the epidemic, there are many uncertainties in the Chinese economy. Right now, it is too early to give an estimation of what economic goals are appropriate. If we hold the meetings after the COVID-19 outbreak is contained, we can have a better picture of what the Chinese economy will be like and what goals should be set," Sheng noted.

"Because of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, China will probably lower its GDP growth target to something like 5.5 percent this year," Gao Liankui, adjunct professor at Business School Netherlands, told the Global Times on Monday.

But Xu Gao, chief economist with Bank of China International believed that a delayed announcement won't change China's economic development goals.

"After all, 2020 is the year by which China is set to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects," Xu told the Global Times on Monday. "And I won't be much surprised if the target for GDP growth is set at around 6 percent."

Zhang Yansheng, chief research fellow at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that the economic goal set in the government work report each year is just an indicator of expectations, not a binding force, so some adjustment should not be a problem.

Whether we should announce these goals is debatable, Zhang told the Global Times on Monday.

Both Gao and Xu suggested there may be some minor adjustments to some other economic indicators and policies.

Loosening financial policies on capital management and other aspects could be mentioned as a means of revitalizing the economy, Gao told the Global Times.

According to Xu, China's fiscal deficit ratio may break the 3 percent GDP mark, to give more flexibility to support the economy amid the epidemic.



Posted in: ECONOMY,BIZ FOCUS

blog comments powered by Disqus