Latest rally led by US stocks precludes renewed attempts to find a bottom amid COVID-19

Source:Global Times Published: 2020/3/31 22:33:40

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 16, 2020 in New York City, US. Photo: AFP



This past quarter may well count as one of the rockiest in history for stock investors across the globe. The aspiration of many investors that had been ballooned by a juicy start to the year has largely evaporated throughout March when circuit breakers were tripped one after another across markets from the US to Europe to Asia. 

With uncertainty remaining over the containment of and response to the deadly disease that has paralyzed a large part of the global economy, thereby inevitably hamming corporate earnings, there are certain to be renewed attempts to find a bottom going forward. 

Widespread news about the three major US indices keeping hitting new highs dominated market sentiment before mid-February, while taking in their stride sporadic warnings that the US market might have taken an overdraft, as measured by company earnings, to shore up its roaring gains.

The evolution of the coronavirus became a catalyst for a meltdown in the US stock market which has since gone through a bloodbath, with four circuit breakers tripped in March. 

With US stocks, long considered as the global bellwether, entering bear market territory, the resulting dollar liquidity crunch was seen quickly gripping the rest of the world, stampeding other markets into a selloff. 

China's A shares, for their part, staged a spectacular rebound for most of February after reopening on February 3 with a deep dive. The strength of A shares continued into early March, setting the long-subdued mainland market apart from the rest of the global market, which was mired in deep losses. Mainland shares failed to continue bucking the trend thereafter, as the coronavirus epidemic spiraled into a pandemic that has prompted an increasing number of economies to institute lockdowns or issue stay-at-home orders. 

Daunted by the economic fallout of the pandemic, the US has rolled out a stunning package of monetary and fiscal measures that have not been previously seen. The world's largest economy which has now been the most affected country in terms of confirmed cases is reportedly mulling over a new round of fiscal stimulus.

The head start the US made in firing monetary and fiscal shots to combat the coronavirus pandemic proved to be initially an overwhelming shock to the equity market that led to a stock market swoon globally in early March. 

The unprecedented rescue package intended to safeguard the virus-raged economy has seen many other major economies taking similar steps. However, it appears to have been effective in reviving the stock market since last week, with a swift rally in all three indices leading to a rebound across many markets. 

The mainland market that has basically blocked the domestic spread of the disease has delivered a fairly weak recovery since last week though. 

The surprisingly upbeat reading for China's purchasing managers' index for March, which defied expectations for a contraction, failed to feed much optimism into the market, with all three major mainland indices ending slightly up to wrap up the month in the red. 

Now that uncertainty lingers over the virus evolution on the global stage, now primarily in the US, the coronavirus black swan will continue to play its part in unnerving investor sentiment. A hesitant mainland market that has lately rested its momentum on food, grain and farm produce shares, mostly on the defensive side, also hints at the lack of a direction that resets the stage for an upward spiral in particularly technology stocks - the mainstays of hopes for an innovation-powered economy.

A highly likely scenario down the line would be that the latest rally led by US stocks only precludes renewed attempts to find a bottom amid the virus onslaught.



Posted in: ECONOMY

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