China will surely hit Vision 2020 goals amid pressure
Published: Dec 08, 2019 09:28 PM Updated: Dec 09, 2019 12:17 AM


Facing external uncertainties and an industrial transformation, China is still able to achieve its set goal of "doubling GDP and per-capita income" in 2020 from 2010, with a strong GDP base built up by years of rapid development and the country's vast consumption potential, Chinese economists said on Sunday.

Next year is of great significance to China, which aims to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects by the year end. 

Nevertheless, when the country has faced the weakest quarterly growth figure of 6 percent in 27 years, many also doubt whether this grand goal could be realized on time and whether the world's second largest economy could witness such a great leap in a country with 1.4 billion people.

"There's no problem for China to achieve that target even amid a slowdown in the country's economic growth," Dong Dengxin, director of the Finance and Securities Institute at Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told the Global Times on Sunday, noting that China's vision for 2020 is a "rather conservative" one based on the practical situation of China's economy. 

In 2018, China's per-capita disposable income increased 6.5 percent year-on-year, faster than the 6.1 percent growth rate of per-capita GDP. The middle-income population in the country has exceeded 400 million, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

Dong predicted that China could achieve the "doubling GDP" target with a yearly growth rate of 5-6 percent, since the country has a large GDP base thanks to rapid economic growth over the past 40 years.

China's National Bureau of Statistics revised its nominal 2018 GDP up 2.1 percent, taking the figure to 91.93 trillion yuan ($13.08 trillion) based on the country's fourth National Economic Census, a routine practice that happens every five years and is also widely adopted by other countries.

"With such a gigantic size, a slower GDP growth rate is also normal - that hasn't and won't become a source of concern," Dong said.

Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, cautioned that though China has the confidence to achieve that goal, challenges remain. It's difficult to conduct structural reform under such an unfavorable external situation.

"We should make it clear that our true challenge lies in the progress of structural reform instead of external uncertainties," Cong said, adding that people should focus more on the growth quality of Chinese economy.

As long as China can keep stimulating internal activity such as domestic consumption, while further accelerating the pace of opening-up to the world, it could surely achieve its goal, experts said.