Tourism could reach 80% of last year's level in October: analyst
Published: Sep 04, 2020 07:40 PM

Tourism Photo:VCG

China's consumption market will see a peak season, driven by rising market demand and government efforts, and October is expected to see a robust revival after China has controlled the coronavirus, analysts said.

September and October were the traditional "gold and silver" months of consumption, as tourism was usually strong. Every year, the week beginning October 1, National Day, is the golden week holiday, which comes after the Mid-Autumn Festival in September.

The State Council announced an eight-day holiday in October, which links the two holidays. 

Analysts said that a long holiday is a boost to domestic tourism, as the "suppressed" impulse will set off a new wave of travel.

China also plans to hold large shopping festivals from September 9 to October 8 to boost domestic consumption, and various products including autos, appliances, home furnishings, imported commodities and agricultural products offering promotions, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.

"It is highly likely that there will be a new peak in consumption, especially online consumption. But tourism, a main engine of consumption, will definitely hit a new high during the holiday in October," Chen Bo, an associate research fellow at the Institute for Finance and Economics under the Central University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Friday.

File photo:Xinhua

To address weak global demand, Beijing, for example, has held over 600 events to boost domestic consumption. More than 2,800 online and offline activities have been organized nationwide, with more than 100,000 companies participating, official data shows.

"Domestic tourism during the National Day holiday and in the last quarter of the year is expected to reach around 80 percent of last year's level," Ji Zhiying, a travel industry analyst at Beijing-based consulting and research firm Analysys, told the Global Times.

Last year, there were 782 million domestic tourist trips during the National Day holiday, with revenue of 649.71 billion yuan ($95 billion). Analysts said 625 million trips could be estimated this October.

The upcoming holiday is expected to usher in the first tourism and consumption peak this year, and is also expected to be the most cost-effective holiday in recent years, according to a report online travel platform Ctrip sent the Global Times.

Data from Ctrip shows that demand for car rentals for the holiday has been huge, with prices also rising significantly, as Ji said that small customized tours have become mainstream in China since the COVID-19 outbreak.

Data also showed that tourists are willing to spend more money, more than 80 percent of which have chosen four- or five-star hotels, as the price of higher-star hotels dropped after the coronavirus outbreak.

But analysts said that due to the uncertainty of the policies of schools and universities that may prevent inter-provincial travel to curb the spread of coronavirus, this National Day holiday may see fewer students.