Moviegoers watch the film The Eight Hundred on August 14, 2020 in Shanghai. Photo: cnsphoto

Box office revenue during the Chinese New Year may struggle to reach the target of 7 billion yuan (1.08 billion) estimated by securities traders. Some analysts told the Global Times that box office revenue may reach 5 billion yuan and the box office structure will be changed due to "stay in place" policies.

An employee of CGV Cinema in Beijing's Daxing district reached by the Global Times said that the occupancy rate is restricted to less than 50 percent of capacity, from the previous 75 percent or more, as a precautionary measure to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. What's more, drinking and eating are not allowed in theaters. 

According to the local Center for Disease Control, there were 20 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Daxing as of Monday.

Film industry observer and professor at the Beijing Film Academy Shi Wenxue told the Global Times on January 20 that box office revenue during the Chinese New Year holidays could reach 5 billion yuan. 

The New Year holiday is a vital period for the industry. "The box office during the Chinese New Year holidays usually accounts for 10 percent of the whole year's figure, and sometimes can reach 15-17 percent," said Shi. 

The box office during Chinese New Year 2020 totaled only 23.57 million yuan as the virus hit China hard during the festival period.

Annual Spring Festival box office in billion yuan Graphic: GT

Because of the latest outbreak of coronavirus in North China's Hebei Province and Northeast China's Jilin and Heilongjiang, shares of several film companies including Wanda Film, Enlight Media and Huayi Brothers Media Corp edged down starting from Wednesday. 

Investment bank China International Capital Corp said on January 13 that the box office for the Chinese New Year may reach 6.425 billion yuan, less than previous industry estimates of 7 billion yuan. 

Zhejiang Province-based film director Xiang Kai told the Global Times that the nation's "stay in place for the holiday" policy will affect the structure of China's box office. 

"The box office revenues of some third- and fourth-tier cities, such as those in Southwest China's Guizhou Province, East China's Jiangxi Province and South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, may be affected because they have a number of migrant workers who may not return to their hometowns during the Chinese New Year holidays this year," said Xiang. 

He noted that this will be offset in first- and second-tier cities.

Xiang said he was relatively positive about the Chinese New Year box office, and recent sporadic COVID-19 cases will cause less damage to the film industry than those in 2020.

"Due to the 'stay in place for the holiday' policies, local cinemas may be good places for people to enjoy themselves," said Xiang.

 Xiang also noted that the blockbusters lined up for the 2021 Chinese New Year holidays are attracting attention. 

"Detective Chinatown 3, which was scheduled to be shown in the 2020 Chinese New Year holiday but was postponed to 2021, and other domestic films may surprise the market," said Xiang.