What will Lithuania's courtship toward US bring? Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Just a day after Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda publicly acknowledged that it was a mistake to allow the island of Taiwan to open a so-called representative office in Vilnius, the Baltic nation on Wednesday reportedly blocked a railway contract with a China-owned company, doubling down on its provocation against China.

Under the guise of what it called "national security interests," the Lithuanian government ordered its state-owned railway company to not sign a contract with a China-owned Spanish bridge builder, according to Reuters.

The report is yet to be confirmed, but clearly Lithuania has not really realized its mistakes. If the report is accurate, Lithuania is actually seeking to further escalate its provocation against China. On the Taiwan question, Lithuania has already challenged the one-China principle. With the reported move on the railway contract, the country is now trying to undermine China's economic interests. 

Lithuanian officials have been accusing China of "economic coercion," but they are the ones who are going rogue and behaving like an ant trying to shake a giant tree. The details of the contract are still unclear, but if Chinese interests were damaged, there will most definitely be consequences for Lithuania. China has made it clear that it would never bully others, but its resolve to protect national interests was not to be underestimated. 

In picking up an economic fight with China, Lithuania is biting off more than it can chew. 

It is no secret that the US is the one pulling the strings behind the Baltic nation's irrational moves, trying to use Lithuania to play the "Taiwan card" in confronting China. And amid doubts and opposition within Lithuania over the country's approach toward China, Washington is apparently ramping up efforts to further instigate Lithuania and lure its "allies" into its geopolitical gambit with the usual empty talks.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a press conference on Wednesday that the US and Germany stand against China's "intimidation" toward Lithuania, according to reports. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, on the same day, spoke with Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and expressed the US' continuing strong support for Lithuania in the face of "economic coercion" from China.

Also on Wednesday, the Taiwan secessionist authority said it would set up a $200 million fund to invest in Lithuania. 

These forces can hype up claims of "economic coercion" all day long, but the fact remains that Lithuania is willingly undermining China's core interests at the behest of the US. By doing so, it has waded into uncharted waters that would be increasingly hard for the country to navigate with rising tensions and widening implications. It would be extremely naive for Vilnius to think that it could gain more from Washington and Taiwan secessionist forces, other than empty words or limited support. 

If Lithuania keeps on this rogue approach, it will pay a price. And once Washington feels the strategy has run its course, the Baltic nation will ultimately be discarded by the US. Lithuania may end up being a sad joke.

There is also a lesson to be learned here for EU leaders, who appeared to be sending mixed signals over Lithuania's unhinged approach. The EU should objectively and carefully examine the facts, maintain its independent policymaking in the face of US pressure, and draw a reasonable conclusion. Being hijacked by the political games of Lithuania or the US would not be good for the EU, China and the massive bilateral economic interest.