China's 2021 GDP growth estimated above 8%
Published: Jan 16, 2022 10:56 PM
GDP Photo: VCG

GDP Photo: VCG

China's GDP is expected to grow above 8 percent in 2021, analysts said ahead of the release of economic data on Monday.

China is scheduled to release on Monday data on its GDP growth and other key economic indexes, including fixed-asset investment, industrial value-added, and retail sales and unemployment rate  for 2021. 

January's Global Economic Prospects report from the World Bank estimated China's GDP growth of 8 percent in 2021, compared to 5.6 percent for the US and 5.5 percent for the world.

The estimation is in line with a report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in December which predicted the Chinese economy would grow by 8 percent in 2021.

"In 2021, the Chinese economy has maintained sound recovery and has laid a good foundation for the realization of the main economic and social development objectives throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period," the report said.

Analysts widely expect that China's GDP will increase by above 8 percent in 2021, with data on December on the upside. 

"It is expected that China's GDP will expand by 5 to 7 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter and the economic growth for 2021 is expected at 8 percent," Dong Dengxin, Director of the Finance and Securities Institute at the Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told the Global Times on Sunday.

Wu Chaoming, chief economist at Chasing Securities, also expects the economic growth for 2021 to reach 8.1 percent.

The country's economic output rose 4.9 percent both on one-year and two-year basis in Q3, partly weighed down by the rise of bulk commodity prices and power supply restrictions. In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 9.8 percent with a total of 82.3 trillion yuan ($12.8 trillion).  

In December major industrial products fell back as stabilizing policies took effect and the PPI rise was 1.2 percentage points less than in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. 

The manufacturing PMI has increased by 0.2 to 50.3 points month-on-month, which was in the expansion range for the second consecutive month, indicating a steady recovery of manufacturing activities, analysts said.

China's trade topped $6 trillion for the first time in 2021, customs data showed on Friday, as the Chinese economy, a global forerunner in containing the COVID-19, continued a solid recovery over the past year. 

Although sporadic coronavirus outbreaks have been reported in parts of the country, economists are confident that China's GDP is on track to grow above 5 percent this year.

It is estimated that China's economic growth will be about 5.5 percent in 2022, rising stably in each quarter with the three-year compound average growth rate in 2020-22 at about 5.2 percent, Wu said, adding that he expects that Chinese macroeconomic policy in 2022 will focus on driving up domestic demand in terms of infrastructure and real estate investment and consumer demand.

"The Chinese government would likely step up policy support this year to prop up market demand, including reducing interest rates," Wu said.

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, expects China's GDP to grow by more than 5.4 percent in 2022, according to a recent media briefing sent to the Global Times.

Exports will still be a positive contribution to growth and it is estimated that China's consumption and investment of infrastructure will see a rebound from Q2 this year, Wang said in the briefing.

Wang expects the macro policy in 2022 to center on stabilizing growth while containing financial and property risks.

"There could be continued tax cut for SMEs and monetary policy is expected to provide more liquidity," Wang remarked.