Economists restore confidence on China’s economic growth next year at GT annual conference after central key meeting
Published: Dec 17, 2022 09:31 PM
Photo: Global Times

Photo: Global Times

China will eye rapid economic growth next year, said economists when attending the 2023 Global Times Annual Conference on Saturday, as a slew of measures to tackle major risks as well as promote an overall improvement in economic operations will be implemented after the tone-setting central economic meeting.

"China's economy will lead the world with 8 percent of growth next year, bringing confidence and hope to the world," said Wei Jianguo, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchange and former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce during the conference, which was held online and offline.

Wei noted that the country's strong production and supply chains not only withstood the onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also repelled the obstruction of the US and some European countries that seek to decouple with China.

In addition, the country still enjoys an enormous market and strong consumption capacity, the expert added.

From Thursday to Friday, the Central Economic Work Conference, which often sets the tone for economic policymaking for the coming year, was held in Beijing, vowing to stabilize growth, employment and prices as well as to boost internal demand.

As a crucial part of efforts to stabilize the economy, officials attending the meeting said that priority should be given to restoring and expanding consumption, vowing support for consumption of housing, new-energy vehicles and elderly care.

During the two-day meeting, officials noted the need to step up proactive fiscal policies to maintain the necessary fiscal spending intensity.

"A new development pattern that focuses on internal market will be formed rapidly next year, while the digital economy, intelligent manufacturing, urban development and green economy will bolster the formation of the new consumption pattern," Wei added.

Yu Yongding, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said during the Global Times annual conference that China's GDP growth target could be set at above 5 percent or even 6 percent in 2023, and the country should adopt an expansionary fiscal policy to achieve the goal.

"The focus of expansionary fiscal policy is still infrastructure investment, and the financing structure of this field should be improved," Yu noted, adding that localities can take specific measures to stimulate residential consumption.

Jia Kang, former director of the China Academy of Fiscal Sciences, predicted that China's 2022 economy growth will around 3 percent, and the growth of 2023 is expected to reach 6 percent and has potential to hit 8 percent, during his speech at the Global Times annual conference.

Jia stressed that the China's economic development should be focused on improving quality as well as efficiency.

Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, said China's economy will realize a 6 percent of growth rate at least next year.

Yao said a country's economy growth is contributed by capital accumulation and total factor productivity. According to his estimation, China's current potential economy growth is within 4.7 to 6.3 percent.

Yao said that China's economy growth in 2022 will be at 3 to 3.5 percent. "A 6 percent of growth in 2023 will be achieved if multiple policies are loosened to boost the economy, but no need too much of adjustments for potential inflation," he said.

In terms of the country's foreign trade, Wei noted that next year, foreign trade will still make a more important contribution [to the country's overall economic development], as the high-quality opening-up will lead to a new leap in China's business environment and a more market-oriented and internationalized Chinese capital market system will take shape next year.

"More policies will be introduced for private and foreign enterprises next year to create a more favorable business environment that reflects fairness, openness and justice," Wei added.

Yu noted that facing a tough foreign trade situation in 2023, China needs to stimulate domestic demand and speed up the construction of a new development pattern that takes the domestic market as the mainstay while letting internal and external markets boost each other.