Illutration: Xia Qing/GT

As monthly figures released on Monday showed Hong Kong's exports took a battering at the beginning of this year, Western media outlets seem so excited to spread the news, with some of them desperately trying to use the figures as new support to undermine the city's economy. Bloomberg said in its report that slowing global demand and an economic downturn in the Chinese mainland have hobbled the city's trade and economic prospects, with GDP shrinking in 2022 for the third time in four years.

In the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), total exports stood at HK$ 290.9 billion ($37.07 billion) in January, down 36.7 percent from a year ago. It emphasized by Western media outlets that January's figures mark the biggest monthly percentage drop since September 1953, when the city's exports fell 39.3 percent year-on-year. 

Western media's "Hong Kong economic collapse" claims have been prevailing over the past decades following the city's return to the motherland in 1997, but they always encounter failures in forecasting Hong Kong's economy. Why? It's partly because of those Westerners' lack of understanding about China. More importantly, some of them have steered away from their objectivity as they are so eager to hope Hong Kong's economy will collapse under the One country, Two systems policy.

There is no need to deny that Hong Kong's economy encountered headwinds in 2022 as its GDP shrank by 3.5 percent year-on-year, but it should also be recognized that its economy has started emerging from the adverse impacts of the pandemic. As expectation that Hong Kong's economy will rebound is increasingly held in the market, the export crash in January, of course, will make investors a little uneasy. However, a closer look into January's exports showed that the worry is unnecessary.

The export crash can largely be attributed to the early arrival of Spring Festival holidays. In January, more migrant workers returned hometown for Spring Festival as the epidemic prevention and control measures have been optimized in line with the evolving epidemic situation, resulting in temporary economic stagnation during holidays. What's more, last year's Spring Festival holiday was in February, so there is a high base of comparison for January's figures. It comes as no surprise that January's exports slumped on a yearly base.

Trade figures in the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong are traditionally volatile at the beginning of the year due to the effect of Spring Festival holidays. Therefore, Chinese economists do not usually read too much into trade figures for January, because the data does not necessarily reflect the trend for the whole year.

Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy is expected to stage a visible rebound in 2023. The HKSAR government has launched a series of grand measures to revitalize the COVID-hit economy. Officials said the economy will return to growth this year and expand by between 3.5 percent and 5.5 percent. 

Affected by shrinking global demand, Hong Kong's exports of goods are likely to still face challenges this year, but the sector has passed the most difficult period and has been on the development track.

Hong Kong is known as a gateway between the Chinese mainland and the rest of the world. Since the optimization of anti-epidemic measures, international agencies and financial institutions have unanimously expressed optimism about the prospects of economic recovery in the mainland. It has been widely anticipated that the mainland's economic recovery will help inject new impetus into the Hong Kong economy. At present, the outlook for the world economy is clouded with multiple negative factors such as geopolitical conflict. With the global demand being hit, there is no doubt that Hong Kong's economic links with the mainland will continue to be strengthened in the future.

In February, normal travel between Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland has been fully resumed. The mainland is a strong support for Hong Kong's economy. There is every reason to believe that with the central government continuing its strong support for HKSAR, and with continuous improvements to Hong Kong's own economic competitiveness, the city will enjoy long-term prosperity.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn