This aerial photo taken on April 6, 2023 shows a container ship at the smart zero-carbon terminal of Tianjin Port in north China's Tianjin. North China's Tianjin Port handled approximately 5.047 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containers in the first three months of 2023, up 9.09 percent year on year.(Photo: Xinhua)

Ahead of China's release of its first-quarter economic data, experts gave generally optimistic estimates of 4-4.5 percent GDP growth, citing a decent consumption rebound and strong fixed-asset investment in March.

The National Bureau of Statistics will release first-quarter GDP growth and other data on Tuesday morning at a press conference. It will be China's first quarterly economic performance in the post-COVID era, and it will offer insight into whether China can smoothly achieve its economic target this year.

Li Changan, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times on Sunday that first-quarter GDP may have risen about 4.5 percent on a yearly basis. 

Reuters analysts also gave relatively optimistic estimates of China's first-quarter GDP. In a recent poll, they said that GDP probably "perked up" to 4 percent, compared with 2.9 percent in the previous three quarters.

In a statement sent to the Global Times, UBS analysts said that China's GDP growth in the first quarter might have been higher than their previous expectations of about 3 percent. 

They estimated that first-quarter industrial production growth might have been 3.1 percent, nominal retail sales probably rose by 5.1 percent, and property sales likely turned to growth from contraction.

The upbeat estimates came after recent economic indicators were better than expected in many areas in March, especially in terms of trade. 

"Based on the available data from the first two months, it appears that the Chinese economy has made a good start to achieving a full-year strong recovery," Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Sunday, adding that foreign trade has been a particular highlight. 

Customs data showed that China's exports in March stood at 2.15 trillion yuan ($312.85 billion), up 23.4 percent from the previous year and up 48.4 percent month-on-month. Some foreign institutions described the data as "well above market expectations." 

Consumption also showed robust growth, which boosted analysts' confidence in a first-quarter rebound. For example, Li said that signs of recovery in services industries like tourism were very evident.

"The recovery started in March and is continuing," he said, adding that the recovery in March had helped first-quarter GDP. 

Meanwhile, first-quarter GDP growth was largely driven by strong investment, while consumption will account for a larger share of growth in the following quarters of 2023.

Experts are also upbeat about China's economic prospects for the whole year. 

Talking about major tasks in the coming months, Cong said that infrastructure investment should be a key driver for economic growth. He noted that amid rising investment, structural management must be carried out to ensure high-quality infrastructure investment.

"The overall recovery trend is expected to continue throughout the year, and achieving a growth rate of around 5 percent, or as many predicted a range of 5.2-5.6 percent will not be a problem," he said.

The economic recovery is a process that requires time and efforts to see substantial growth in areas like household consumption. To restore confidence in these sectors, a favorable policy environment is needed with the continuation of policies such as tax and fee reductions, he said.

During the opening of the annual gathering of the National People's Congress recently, China set an official GDP growth target of about 5 percent for this year. The country optimized its COVID-19 management policies in December by lifting anti-epidemic restrictions.