China remains key driver of global trade growth despite ‘decoupling’ push: report
Published: May 31, 2023 10:37 PM
The skyline of Lujiazui in Shanghai Photo: CFP

The skyline of Lujiazui in Shanghai Photo: CFP

The Chinese mainland will see a stable growth in goods exports through 2030 and continue to play a leading role in driving global merchandise trade, according to a report released on Wednesday.

The findings of the report released by UK-based multinational bank Standard Chartered offered the latest sign that global business leaders remain confident in China's export sector, despite intensifying calls from the US and some of its allies to "decouple" or "de-risk" their trade ties with China. 

Through 2030, China's exports of goods are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 4.7 percent and total exports will likely hit $4.37 trillion, according to the report. 

The Chinese mainland will continue to play a leading role in global trade in goods and be a key growth driver, the report said. 

China's export structure will likely be upgraded, as mechanical and electronic goods will become the main export products, accounting for 52 percent of the total. 

The report suggested that India is expected to become the fastest-growing destination for the Chinese mainland's goods exports, surpassing South Korea, Germany and Vietnam by 2030.

It will then become the second-largest export destination for the Chinese mainland with total value of $212 billion, second only to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. 

The report comes as the US and some of its allies push for "decoupling" or "de-risking" their trade relationships with China, which is widely expected to profoundly disrupt global trade links. 

The report noted that a healthy development of trade depends on resilient supply chains. However, global companies still face many challenges that threaten the resilience of supply chains. Among the challenges are intensifying geopolitical tensions and high and unstable energy and commodity prices. 

Poor infrastructure, high inflation, sanctions, tariffs and export bans are also the main concerns, according to the report. 

Yet, global trade in goods is expected to remain strong through 2030. Global trade in goods will likely reach $32.6 trillion by 2030, with that of Asia, Africa and the Middle East expected to account for 44 percent of the total, according to the report. 

In 2022, Chinese exports rose by 10.5 percent year-on-year to 23.97 trillion yuan ($3.54 trillion), according to Chinese official data. In the first four months of 2023, China's exports expanded by 10.6 percent year-on-year to 7.67 trillion yuan, official data showed. Trade figures for May are expected to be released next week. 

Global Times