SOURCE / ECONOMY
China to remain locomotive for global growth in 2024, as World Bank cuts forecast
World Bank cuts global growth forecast; China well-positioned to tackle pressure
Published: Jan 10, 2024 10:30 PM
This aerial photo taken on Jan. 7, 2024 shows tourists having fun at an ice amusement spot in sunset on the Songhuajiang River Harbin section in Harbin, northeast China's Heilongjiang Province. Dubbed China's ice city, Harbin has recently seen a tourism boom. An ice amusement spot, transformed from an ice collecting site out of use, has attracted lots of visitors to have fun here with ice packs scattered on the Songhuajiang River Harbin section. (Xinhua/Xie Jianfei)

This aerial photo taken on Jan. 7, 2024 shows tourists having fun at an ice amusement spot in sunset on the Songhuajiang River Harbin section in Harbin, northeast China's Heilongjiang Province. Dubbed China's "ice city," Harbin has recently seen a tourism boom. An ice amusement spot, transformed from an ice collecting site out of use, has attracted lots of visitors to have fun here with ice packs scattered on the Songhuajiang River Harbin section. (Xinhua/Xie Jianfei)


The World Bank has issued a stern warning that the global economy is set for a "weakest" half-decade performance in three decades, as it forecasts a slower growth rate of 2.4 percent in 2024, down from 2.6 percent for 2023. 
While the multilateral lender also slightly lowered its forecast for China's growth in 2024, China's expected growth rate would still be the fastest among major economies, significantly outpacing projected growth rates for advanced economies such as the US. 
Analysts said that while slower global growth will exert pressure on China's economic recovery, which is also facing internal downward pressure, Chinese policymakers have sufficient tools at their disposal to ensure a steady recovery. Moreover, some Chinese institutions and economists have forecast that China's economic growth could surpass 5 percent in 2024.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday US time, the World Bank said that global economic growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row - from 2.6 percent in 2023 to 2.4 percent in 2024, almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s. 
"Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity," Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank, was quoted as saying in a press release. Gill warned that near-term growth will remain weak and many developing countries, especially the poorest, are stuck in a trap with paralyzing debt levels and severe food shortages.
China, the world's biggest developing country, is expected to remain a locomotive for global growth. The World Bank report projected that China's economy will grow by 4.5 percent in 2024, 0.1 percentage points less than its June 2023 projection. 
However, such a growth rate outpaces other major economies. For example, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6 percent, and advanced economies as a whole are projected to grow by 1.2 percent in 2024. China's projected growth rate is also higher than that of emerging market and developing economies as a whole, at 3.9 percent. 
"As the main engine of the world economy, China has been driving the growth of the global economy since the early 1990s, and our contribution is also constantly increasing," Hu Qimu, a deputy secretary-general of the digital-real economies integration Forum 50, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Hu noted that while China's economy also faces downward pressure from sluggish internal and external demand, China is well-positioned to tackle those challenges and ensure that the economic recovery continues to consolidate in 2024. "There is plenty of room for policies," Hu said, adding that fiscal policy will play a bigger role in spurring domestic demand and the industrial upgrade. 
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2023 listed expanding domestic demand as a top priority for economic policy in 2024, calling for efforts to stimulate consumption. It also called for a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy with strengthened innovation and coordination of policy tools.
Thanks to a flurry of policy measures and other factors, China's consumption market has seen a boom since the New Year's Day holidays, during which domestic tourist trips jumped 155.3 percent year-on-year and total domestic tourism revenue shot up 200.7 percent from 2023. Over the past week or so, an ice and snow "tourism miracle" in Harbin, Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, has become a national sensation and barometer of China's economic vitality. 
That, along with other growing positive factors such as policy measures, has led an increasing number of Chinese institutions and economists to project a robust growth in China in 2024. On Tuesday, the Center for Forecasting Science at the Chinese Academy of Science projected that China's economic growth will reach 5.3 percent in 2024, significantly higher than what the World Bank projected. 
Wang Peng, an associate researcher from the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said that while slower global growth will also weigh on China's growth, China still has great potential in several areas, which are also top priorities, including domestic demand expansion and scientific and technology innovation and industrial upgrades. 
"Against the backdrop of challenges faced by the global economy, the stability and development of China's economy are crucial to the world," Wang told the Global Times on Wednesday. "As the world's second-largest economy, China has the responsibility and ability to contribute to global economic stability and development."
In stark contrast to China's approach for win-win cooperation to tackle global challenges, the US approach of sanctions and protectionism, and its aggressive monetary policy, pose risks for the world economy, especially developing countries, Wang said.