Foreign banks raise China's 2024 GDP growth outlook after impressive Q1
Published: Apr 17, 2024 08:13 PM
A view of the Lujiazui area in Shanghai Photo: VCG

A view of the Lujiazui area in Shanghai Photo: VCG

A number of foreign banks and institutions have upgraded forecasts for China's GDP growth for 2024 after the economy expanded by an impressive 5.3 percent in the first quarter, well above market expectations.

These bullish outlooks offer a strong rebuttal to the "Peak China" rhetoric.

UBS on Wednesday upgraded its forecast to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent.  

UBS Chief China Economist and Head of Asia Economics Wang Tao said that China's better-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter and a strong export outlook led the investment bank to upgrade the forecast. 

UBS also revised China's forecast for exports in 2024 from a 1.2 percent increase to 3.5 percent in dollar terms.

Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) raised its full-year growth forecast to 5 percent, up from the previous estimate of 4.5 percent, after the release of China's economic data on Tuesday. 

DBS said that China's first-quarter economic growth exceeded market expectations, with exports showing resilience. Accelerated infrastructure and manufacturing investment offset the pressure from slowing real estate investment.

ANZ on Tuesday revised its China GDP forecast for 2024 to 4.9 percent as the country's GDP in the first quarter was higher than its previous forecast.

Major indicators showed that China's economy is steadily progressing and achieving a strong start to the year. 

Retail sales grew 4.7 percent year-on-year to 12.03 trillion yuan ($1.66 trillion) in the first quarter, while industrial added-value was up 6.1 percent, and fixed-asset investment rose by 4.5 percent to 10 trillion yuan, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday.

China's total merchandise trade expanded 5 percent year-on-year in yuan terms in the first quarter, setting new records in both scale and the pace of growth.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup recently released separate reports stating that China's economy is off to a good start in 2024 and the GDP growth target of "around 5 percent" set by the Chinese government can be achieved.

Goldman Sachs upgraded China's GDP growth for 2024 to 5 percent from 4.8 percent while Citigroup lifted its forecast to 5 percent from 4.6 percent previously.

"The international community is increasingly optimistic about China, and confidence in China's development is growing," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a press conference on Wednesday.

China's economic foundation is full of potential. China will continue to advance high-quality development and high-level opening-up, and work with countries around the world in driving global economic recovery and development, Lin said.

An Asian Development Outlook report from the Asian Development Bank estimated that China will account for 46 percent of growth in developing Asia in the 2024-2025 period and remain the largest growth engine for the world economy. 

Global Times