SOURCE / ECONOMY
China 2025 growth prospect underpinned by strong leadership, vast market, supply chain advantages: economist
Published: Mar 10, 2025 04:03 PM
Tian Xuan, associate dean of Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance Photo: Xue Ke/GT

Tian Xuan, associate dean of Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance Photo: Xue Ke/GT


China's GDP target of around 5 percent for 2025 is achievable, and the prospect is boosted by hardcore technologies, people-oriented investment, and an innovative ecosystem, Tian Xuan, a deputy to the National People's Congress (NPC) and associate dean of Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance, told the Global Times in an exclusive interview.

China on Wednesday set a growth target of around 5 percent for its economy in 2025, according to the Government Work Report. While the target remains the same as last year's goal, the target is by no means an easy feat, Tian said.

However, the target is "gettable" as long as the country works harder toward it, underpinned by detailed measures and policies from the central government, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy, a more proactive fiscal policy, advancements in hardcore technologies, people-oriented investment, and a strong emphasis on innovation, according to Tian.

A slew of other economic targets was also unveiled on Wednesday, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio set at around 4 percent while the surveyed urban unemployment rate targeted at around 5.5 percent.

Although the GDP growth target is set at around 5 percent, unchanged from that of last year's, the connotation is different given China's continuously growing GDP base figures, Tian said, noting that this increase, equivalent to that of a mid-sized economy, will continue contributing to the global economy, which has yet to fully recover from the pandemic-induced recession of recent years.

In addition to the usual emphasis on investment in infrastructure, railroads and airports, the government has now begun prioritizing investments in people, and the Government Work Report indicates an even greater focus this year on improving livelihoods, particularly in medical care, education, and elderly care, among other areas, Tian noted.

Tian, who made headlines during the two sessions by stating that artificial intelligence (AI) can assist but not dominate humans, noted that many "pleasant surprises" have emerged in China's sci-tech sector around the Spring Festival.

"From DeepSeek's chatbot to Unitree's humanoid robot, we have already observed some surprises in China's AI industry, which is going to be one of the leading industries in the years to come. These developments, along with other hardcore technologies such as the 6G wireless communication, quantum computing, cloud computing and blockchains, highlighted by the Government Work Report's emphasis on further fostering technological innovation, will provide additional growth impetus to economic growth in 2025," said Tian.

Notably, these achievements in the sci-tech and cultural sectors are occurring not just in one region of China, but in many regions across the country. This shows that China has already been offering constant support for all kinds of innovations - in sci-tech, in cultural and business model. And the government only needs to further nurture the ecosystem for innovation, according to Tian.

Tian said the national venture capital guidance fund, announced by the country's top economic planner on Thursday, is of great significance demonstrating China's determination of an unprecedented level to push for further innovation.

Tian referred to the national fund - expected to mobilize nearly 1 trillion yuan ($138.15 billion) in local government and private investment - as an "aircraft carrier fund" designed to provide long-term support for sci-tech innovation and address gaps that private capital alone cannot fill.

Tian said one of China's biggest challenges is insufficient domestic demand but believes the government's plans, such as increasing the budget deficit to support higher government spending, issuing ultra-long special treasury bonds, and improving investment efficiency will help address the issues.

The country has a strong leadership, a vast market, and a complete and mature industrial and supply chain, a strong reserve of talent and a large body of trained labor force, these unique attributes will help the world's second-largest economy navigate the issues it faced during the course of development, Tian said.