Illustration: Xia Qing/GT

Following the China-US trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, American companies have once again triggered a "shipment surge" from China. The wave of accelerated imports to the US is a manifestation of the intertwining and complementary economic and trade ties between China and the US.

It also reveals two major underlying factors - the "irreplaceable" competitiveness of Chinese products and the ever-growing anxiety among US companies over Washington's trade policy uncertainty.

First, for US companies, Chinese products are difficult to replace. A large proportion of China's exports to the US consist of everyday consumer goods, such as shoes, textiles, clothing, toys and light industrial products. These goods are not only reliable in quality but also highly competitive in price, making them hard to replace with alternatives on the market.

As a result, the tariffs reduction resulting from the Geneva talks quickly prompt US companies to ramp up imports from China to meet market demand.

Wang Xiaosong Photo: Courtesy of Wang Xiaosong

Beyond traditional consumer goods, China has steadily upgraded its industrial structure. It now supplies many high-value intermediate equipment and products, including machinery, electronic components and precision parts - items indispensable for US manufacturers. If tariffs were raised again, US companies would face very higher sourcing costs by turning to alternative suppliers. To mitigate this risk, many firms are rushing to import Chinese goods during the current policy window to lock in secure supply.

Second, the latest rush in shipments is also a manifestation of the corporate anxiety over the US' unpredictable trade policies. The US government's changes in tariff policies have significantly disrupted the normal operations of many US businesses. While a 90-day negotiation window has provided a pause, some claim that the long-term outlook remains uncertain. This lack of policy clarity has led US importers to front-load procurements, compressing future demand into the present and triggering a spike in import activity.

While this move may address immediate needs, it has strained logistics networks, causing port congestion and shipment delays. Moreover, this behavior is unsustainable. Although it temporarily boosts inventory, it places financial pressure on importers, which must pay substantial deposits upfront, impacting their short-term cash flow and financial stability.

Although the rush in imports to the US may provide short-term relief for American businesses, it is not a long-term solution. In the first quarter of this year, pre-tariff stockpiling contributed to a 0.3-percent contraction in the US economy and a widening trade deficit.

To mitigate the economic distortions caused by policy uncertainty, it is essential to reduce trade tensions and offer businesses a consistent and predictable policy environment. While part of the tariffs has been rolled back, overall US import duties remain elevated. A more decisive reduction in its tariffs would contribute to more stable economic growth in the US.

The path forward for China-US trade relations hinges on whether the US can realize the negative impacts of its protectionist tariff policy and rectify its stance.

The Chinese and American economies are largely complementary, and decades of cooperation have resulted in deeply intertwined trade relations. A stable and predictable bilateral trade relationship is in the interest of both countries.

However, ongoing policy uncertainty will continue to disrupt business planning, as the enterprises must remain alert and responsive to shifting trade policies, which increase operational risks across all sectors including logistics and finance.

The root solution lies in abandoning tariffs as a weapon to coerce other countries and removing the additional tariffs altogether. A more cooperative, rules-based approach to trade would not only benefit businesses in both countries but also support broader global economic development. Only by correcting its erroneous unilateral tariff policies, can the US demonstrate sincerity in trade talks with China, and on this basis, both countries can move forward to build a stable and predictable trade relationship.

The author is an economics professor at the Renmin University of China. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn