Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday that the US expects to finalize trade deals with some Southeast Asian countries within weeks, Bloomberg reported.

With higher US tariffs having come into effect in August, short-term trade figures already reveal tangible pressures on ASEAN countries. For instance, Malaysia's exports to the US fell 17 percent in August, according to Bloomberg. This figure directly reflects the impact of US trade policy adjustments on ASEAN, and the impact of tariffs is not just limited to trade. 

Take a look at the terms of the trade agreements previously reached between the US and other countries. For instance, under the US-Japan trade agreement, the US will apply a baseline 15 percent tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, alongside separate sector-specific treatment for automobiles and automobile parts, aerospace products, generic pharmaceuticals, and natural resources that are not naturally available or produced in the US. 

Japan, meanwhile, will provide American manufacturing, aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automobile, and industrial goods producers with breakthrough openings in market access across key sectors. Japan is also working toward an expedited implementation of a 75 percent increase of US rice procurements and purchases of US agricultural goods in amounts totaling $8 billion per year, according to the executive order.

Given such precedents, concerns inevitably arise: Will US trade agreements with ASEAN countries bring even more disruptions to regional industrial chains? It seems possible that the US will follow the same trade logic, demanding that those economies further open up specific industrial sectors to pave the way for American products and businesses. Also, it will set a series of rules that favor US interests. For ASEAN countries, this may translate into higher production costs and stricter regulatory requirements, thereby undermining the competitiveness of ASEAN industries and disrupting their existing industrial chain layouts.

Such US trade moves are expected to push ASEAN economies to recognize the urgency of reducing reliance on the US through strategies such as market diversification and supply chain adjustments. Among these strategies, expanding market diversification is undoubtedly a top priority, with accelerated and deepening economic and trade cooperation with China serving as a prime example.

In recent months, China-ASEAN economic and trade relations have shown remarkable vitality. The 22nd China-ASEAN Expo and China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit concluded on September 21 in Nanning, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, with more than 500 economic and trade agreements signed at the event, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

China's Ministry of Commerce announced in May that China and 10 ASEAN countries have fully completed negotiations on the Version 3.0 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, a milestone in bilateral trade cooperation. According to China's General Administration of Customs, China-ASEAN trade rose 9.7 percent year-on-year in yuan terms during the first eight months of this year.

Meanwhile, multilateral frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are increasingly serving as stabilizers for regional economies. The RCEP offers a vital platform for ASEAN countries, and it aims for collaboration in expanding and invigorating the internal market to unlock greater potential. By implementing measures such as reducing tariffs, eliminating trade barriers, and promoting trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, the RCEP has established more favorable conditions for economic and trade cooperation among ASEAN nations and other member economies.

While the US tariff policy may bring short-term shocks to regional supply chains, these shocks will only force ASEAN to accelerate coordinated cooperation with other Asian economies in the long run. Rather than being derailed by unilateral US trade strategies, ASEAN's focus on diversifying partnerships and leveraging multilateral frameworks such as the RCEP will help mitigate risks while also solidifying the resilience of Asia's regional supply chains.