Photo: Ma Tong/GT

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 5.0 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, up by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from its October World Economic Outlook, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press conference in Beijing on Wednesday.

The improved outlook was driven by welcome macroeconomic policy stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on China's exports, according to IMF.

The announcement came after the IMF concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation mission to China on Wednesday, following  visits to Beijing and Shanghai from December 1 to 10.  

According to the IMF's official description on its website, Article IV consultations are the regular health check of member economies conducted under the IMF's surveillance framework, covering areas such as fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and financial issues.  

"China's economy has shown notable resilience despite facing multiple shocks in recent years. We project growth at 5.0 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026. These reflect upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the IMF's October WEO, driven by recently-announced policy measures and reduced US-China bilateral tariffs," Georgieva said following discussions with Chinese officials on the consultation.

A better balance of Chinese economy internally and externally, also means a stronger and healthier global economy, Georgieva said at the briefing. "China has the opportunity to reach a new stage of development in which its growth edges, which is from investment and exports, to domestic consumption and its economy reorient from goods to services," she said.


Global Times