Gold bullions and gold coins File photo: VCG

The latest spot price of gold surged past $5,278 per ounce, marking a notable increase amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices could hit new high if regional situation escalated, while crude oil could strengthen further due to worries over possible supply interruptions, analysts said.

Gold prices in the future will heavily depend on the intensity of Iran's retaliation and the extent to which the conflict spreads. In the most intensifies situation, gold would become the "ultimate safe haven" for global capital, with prices potentially surging to new all-time highs, Yang Delong, chief economist at Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund, told the Global Times on Sunday.

Markets were closed over the weekend, but spot gold traded higher in electronic sessions, with analysts widely forecasting a "gap-up" opening on Monday, due to heightened risk premium.

"The escalation in geopolitical tensions following the US-Israel strikes on Iran has heightened risk premiums as trading resumes on Monday. Markets are bracing for a classic risk-off response: Safe-haven investments like gold and silver are poised for a potential upward gap at the open, while crude oil could strengthen further due to worries over possible supply interruptions," Yang said.

Pre-strike gold prices had already been elevated (all-time high near $5,608 in January 2026), but the fresh escalation amplified demand, Yang said.

Such safe-haven investments could also be seen in gold futures, which reflect trader expectations for future consumption and supply availability.

Gold futures surged to $5296.4 per ounce at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as showed on CME Group's website.

"Going forward, investors need to closely monitor developments in the situation. Should tensions deteriorate further, price volatility in crude oil, gold, and silver - as well as downward pressure on global stock markets - will likely intensify significantly," Yang noted.

According to CCTV Finance, international oil prices rose this week, with Brent crude reaching its highest level in six months. In an extreme scenario, if Iran were to attack oil facilities in other Gulf countries and disrupt a significant portion of the roughly 18 million barrels of crude oil supplied daily from the region, international oil prices could experience a historic surge, potentially rising above $130 per barrel.

Some oil majors and top trading houses suspended crude oil and fuel shipments via the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Israel attacked Iran and Tehran said it had closed navigation, four trading sources said on Saturday, Reuters reported.

More than 14 million barrels per day flowed through the Strait in 2025, or a third of the world's total seaborne crude exports, according to data from energy consulting firm Kpler.

"Affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran, the short-term A-share market may witness an upward trend in the oil and gas exploration and oil service equipment sector, the gold and precious metal sector, the defense and military industry sector and the coal and coal chemical sector," Fu Yifu, a researcher at Jiangsu Su Merchants Bank, said in an analysis note sent to the Global Times.

Global Times