Susan Thornton, former US acting assistant secretary of state Photo: Li QingQing/GT

Editor's Note: 

China and the US agreed on the text of the phase one trade deal on Friday. How will the deal influence China-US relations? Is there any possibility for the two countries to decouple in the future? Global Times (GT) reporter Li Qingqing talked to Susan Thornton (Thornton), former US acting assistant secretary of state, on the sidelines of the 2nd Round of China-US Leading Scholars Dialogue held on Friday and Saturday in Shanghai.

GT: China and the US agreed on the text of the phase one trade deal on Friday. How do you think a final trade deal, if reached, will shape China-US relations in the long term? Will it stop bilateral relations from worsening?

Thornton: The phase one trade deal being concluded is an excellent first step. We need to get this done in order to have a chance to move into a more productive and constructive mode. So, I am very happy that we were able to reach this phase one deal, assuming it is going to be finished and signed. Depending on what happens with that and many other things, we will see if we go on to phase two. My feeling is that the trade relationship between the US and China is so big and so complicated that we will probably never stop having conversations about trade frictions, trade problems and trying to reach new agreements. And I think that's not a bad thing for US-China relations.

GT: Although many don't think a new cold war similar to the one between the Soviet Union and the US will happen between China and the US, many fields such as people-to-people exchange have suffered. What's your take?

Thornton: I don't think a new cold war is coming. I think there are a lot of things about the Cold War that are very different from the situation between the US and China today. Frankly, the current atmosphere and environment of globalization are two situations different from the Cold War period.

GT: The US has recently passed bills on Hong Kong and Xinjiang. How will the US policy on Taiwan be changing in the short and long term?

Thornton: I think the US policy on Taiwan has been pretty consistent. I do not think it will change very much in the short term. I think it will depend a lot on what China's actions and changes in its position are. But for the US policy, I think we have done a good job of keeping stability across the Taiwan Straits for the last 40 years, and that is something in the interests of Beijing, Washington and Taipei. So, I expect the US policy on Taiwan will continue.

GT: It seems that China-US decoupling is happening, especially in technology. How do you see the trend? Will it spread to other broader fields?

Thornton: I think this is probably the most urgent issue for the US and China to tackle. There are a lot of countries involved. But it is very important for the public to have trust in technology, and it is also going to be important for the technological ecosystem to develop with interconnections. Having the development of separate spheres of technology is not desirable. My hope is that we can start working on some rules and can agree upon approaches that will allow us to not have this technological decoupling. I think it is in the interest of everybody.

GT: Many Chinese people feel that US President Donald Trump's policy is very unpredictable, even mutable. In terms of China policy, which sector in the US has the biggest influence over his China policy? 

Thornton: I think President Trump's approach to the US-China relationship has focused on two big issues. A big focus for him, even before he was in office, was the US-China trade relationship and the US trade relationships with many other countries. The other thing that Trump is very interested in is the issue of trying to reach a deal on the denuclearization of North Korea. I think he hoped very much that he could work with China to get that deal. There have been frustrations on the US part, and probably on China's part, too. But I still very much hope that the US and China could figure out a way to get us into a process where we can continue talking to North Korea about the denuclearization. I think that would be beneficial to all sides.

GT: How do you see the future international order in the context of intensifying competition between China and the US?

Thornton: I think there is a big change under way in the international order. We have had 30 years of basically a unipolar system after the end of the Cold War. Now, we are moving into a much more multipolar system and that is one of the underlying causes of the trouble in adjusting the US-China relationship and other things in the international system. The US and China need the international system to continue to be strong as we have both been the enormous beneficiaries of this system. Maybe China was not quite ready to be a big player in contributing to the strengthening of the international system, but I think it's learning now that it should step up and do that. But China cannot do it alone, and the US cannot do it alone. We need other countries to participate and work together on that.