Nation’s economy won’t take a hit from novel virus: experts

Source:Global Times Published: 2020/1/21 20:23:40

Consumption may dip in short term, but will recover as disease comes under control


 

Photo: cnsphoto



Graphics: GT



Graphics: GT

As the entire country - from China's central government to local authorities to the broad public - is scrambling to contain an epidemic as the infections of a novel coronavirus have surged, experts said that sectors such as tourism, transportation and consumption might be hit significantly. In particular, they have forecast at least 0.1 percent dent to Wuhan's 2020 GDP for economic losses during the Chinese Lunar Spring Festival holidays which starts on Friday.

They also said that with ample experience accumulated in 2003 during the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the latest disease will not cause public panic, and it also won't hamper the development of the China's overall economy.

Wuhan's economy could be hit the hardest in the short term as locals cancel gatherings and travel plans, Tian Yun, vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, told the Global Times on Tuesday. However, he said the situation in Wuhan will not have a major impact on the Chinese economy.

A Wuhan resident surnamed Wang told the Global Times on Tuesday that his family has cancelled "almost all planned outdoor activities" during the upcoming festive season, noting that he will also avoid going to busy places such as supermarkets and dining halls and will instead purchase items online.

"Festival consumption, such as the box office, is expected to be swooned by the new virus," Dong Dengxin, director of the Finance and Securities Institute at Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told the Global Times on Tuesday. 

"We have to closely monitor the evolution of the virus. But given the current information that has been disclosed, the picture will be very different from SARS," Tian said.

During the second quarter of 2003 when SARS was at its rage, the growth rate of retail sales fell to 3.6 percent year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the yearly growth rate of 9.1 percent that year. Overall, the Chinese economy still posted a stunning growth of 9.3 percent year-on-year in 2003.

Lesser impact

"SARS in 2003 originated from South China's Guangdong Province, the manufacturing hub of China, and also a driver of the domestic economy, but as the new disease originated from Wuhan in Central China, the impact on the domestic economy could be even less," Tian said.

The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the new coronavirus-related pneumonia-like disease has risen to almost 300 in the Chinese mainland, and the death toll stands at six.

Wuhan, a transportation hub in Central China's Hubei Province, and also the origin of the new coronavirus, has been going all-out to keep the disease from spreading. Wuhan has introduced personnel controls after the outbreak of the new coronavirus, and it is strengthening examination of people who enter and leave the city. 

The latest variety of infrared thermometers was put into use in Wuhan's airport and railway stations starting Tuesday to control the novel coronavirus amid the Spring Festival travel rush - the largest annual human migration in the world. The thermometer can identify individuals with abnormal body temperatures of a crowd within a second. Major airlines and online booking platforms also offered full refunds or rebooking services for passengers departing from Wuhan. 

Across the country, people are put on high alert to the spread of the disease. "I've cancelled my trip back home, from Beijing to Wuhan, to avoid the possibility of being infected," said a white-collar worker based in Beijing, adding that choice was suggested by his family.

Xu Xiaolei, manager of marketing at China's CYTS Tours Holding Co, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the company may take emergency steps regarding the disease, and it is strengthening monitoring of its customers and tour guides.

"However, we haven't seen any influence on tourism to cities other than Wuhan due to the disease, and outbound tourism is also as usual," Xu said, adding that overseas tourism accounted for about 85 percent of the company's businesses.

Better healthcare

Experts said that as the economic structure and medical level in China have improved greatly from 2003, the new virus is less likely to expand like SARS and disrupt consumption in the long term.

China's e-commerce industry has been developing across the nation, enabling local residents to make special purchases for the Spring Festival with one click, rather than going to crowded markets for shopping, according to Tian.

He added that once the disease is under control, Chinese people will consume more, eat more and shop more, to make up for their suppressed demand at this time.

"There will be a new round of shopping sprees to fuel the nation's economy," Tian noted.

Posted in: ECONOMY,FEATURE

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