Two customers walk out of a shopping mall in Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu Province on February 19. Photo: cnsphotos

China has announced its Labor Day holiday this year will last for five days, as opposed to four days in 2019 and three days in 2018. Analysts say local tourism and online shopping will dominate holiday consumption amid the COVID-19 epidemic.

A source close to Alibaba hinted to the Global Times on Friday that Alibaba's e-commerce platforms such as Tmall.com and Taobao will likely host an online shopping festival. Alibaba has been encouraging online consumption since the outbreak began.

"Online shopping will be a major driver of China's consumption in the first half of the year, as the industry is less affected by the epidemic than other industries," Chen Bo, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Friday.

Data from the “Women's Day Queen Festival” which ran from Thursday to Sunday on Tmall.com showed overall sales "largely surpassed" last year's festival sales. For example, US cosmetics brand Elizabeth Arden has seen 150 million yuan ($21.6 million) in sales over the past two weeks, the equivalent to one-fourth of its total sales in 2019.

Top Chinese epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan said he expects COVID-19 will wind down gradually in June. 

The total number of domestic accommodation searches for the 2020 Labor Day, with travelers checking in between April 30 and May 5, increased more than 2.5 times year-on-year, Airbnb China told the Global Times on Friday.

"The surge in searches only shows people's will to go out. It does not mean all searches will turn into actual travel. Labor Day in May will still be during the epidemic prevention and control stage. It is unlikely that there will be a large-scale flow of people," said Chen. 

"China will probably allow some local consumption such as local tourism and the partial resumption of the catering business. But inter-provincial consumption will likely not be liberalized. We should hold a cautious attitude toward the epidemic," Chen added.

A Beijing resident surnamed Li told the Global Times that her family would rather find a place in the city - in the open air and with few people - to go sightseeing.

"If we make travel arrangements for Labor Day and find that the epidemic is not fully under control, it will be troublesome to refund our tickets and hotel. Our family may just go out for one day and stay at home for the rest of the holiday. Safety comes first," Li said.

Chen Liteng, an analyst at the Hangzhou-based China e-Business Research Center, said the Labor Day holiday will very likely be the first step for tourism’s recovery and rebound, but that depends entirely on epidemic control measures.