SOURCE / COMMENTS
Common sense needed to talk down to China
Public should remain confident in the face of negative natterings
Published: Apr 06, 2015 06:18 PM Updated: Apr 06, 2015 11:29 PM

Illustration: Chen Xia/GT


Whenever China's economic indicators have declined over the past 20 years, people begin bad-mouthing China.

There have been widespread claims that China's economy has stalled and its growth has peaked. The new round of gloom-mongering over China's economic prospects, along with weak external demand, adjustment of resource consumption structure and a sluggish property market, has aggravated concerns during the economic restructuring.

There have been three misconceptions about China's economic performance. The first is that declines in some economic indicators mean that the economy is weak on all fronts. People often list a raft of data such as slower investment growth, falling profits in traditional sectors and weak consumption of high-end food and luxury items. However, they ignore other indicators, such as the upticks in private sector investment and services industry investment, robust profit growth in equipment and high-tech manufacturing, and sound development of digital products consumption and tourism.

In 2014, China's services industry output far exceeded manufacturing industry output. The contribution of consumption to economic growth improved, further optimizing the structure of the economy. One cannot draw a conclusion about China's economic growth based on partial understanding.

As China shifts its economic growth out of high gear, the country has entered a new stage of economic development dubbed the "new normal." This means China has undertaken initiatives to adjust its economic structure, upgrade industries and eventually improve the quality and efficiency of the economy.

Second, the release of controllable risks has been misinterpreted as emerging signs of systematic risk. In recent years, the capital chain of some property developers broke, small- and medium-sized firms in heavy industry met difficulties, small-credit firms went bankrupt, defaults of financial products occurred frequently and bad bank loans increased. These phenomena reflect the difficult process of de-leveraging and de-industrialization in the new normal.

But these risks are controllable and did not lead to a domino effect. The economy is heading in the right direction. At present, emerging industries such as biological medicine, e-commerce and aerospace have gradually taken major roles in the market. In 2014, newly registered businesses surged 45.88 percent year-on-year. Market vitality is further stimulated with the flourishing of mass entrepreneurship.

Third, international deflation has been misread as external trade reaching the limit. The weak growth of China's trade is partly caused by rising domestic labor costs. But the main reason for the weak growth is sluggish growth in demand from other countries, especially from European countries and the US, not to mention depreciation of world competitive currencies and rising trade protectionism.

Despite the unfavorable conditions, China's foreign trade still maintained sound growth, and China consolidated its footing as the world's largest trading country in goods. In addition, China's total outbound direct investment (ODI) reached $140 billion in 2014. If Chinese corporate investment through third parties were included, ODI would have exceeded foreign direct investment by almost $20 billion, making China a net capital exporter for the first time.

The core of the economic restructuring under the new normal is the change of the driving forces of the economy. This means China no longer relies on an extensive economic growth mode that requires high resource consumption. Instead, it needs to create new driving forces through a fresh round of reforms, innovation, urbanization, opening-up and efforts to improve people's livelihood.

Meanwhile, the good news for the global economy is obvious. The faster growth of the US economy will drive global external demand, which will broaden China's exports. The sharp drop in crude oil prices will help reduce costs for Chinese companies and drive up consumer spending. Therefore, instead of saying China's economic growth is likely to reach a limit, we would rather say China is now honing its edge for a period of long-term, high-quality economic growth.

The new normal presents China with opportunities to restructure its economy. To analyze China's economic data, we need common sense. Certainly China's economy is slowing down. But there are also positive signs. During this year's Spring Festival holidays, the number of Chinese tourists traveling inside China and abroad hit a new high. The ports of Tianjin, Shanghai and Xiamen are bustling with activity and packed with ships ready to carry goods abroad. These are a reflection of China's economic and social prosperity.

Indeed China faces many problems and challenges. But these problems are growing pains. As President Xi Jinping said, China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. We need to adapt to the new normal and stay calm strategically. When faced with negative voices, Chinese people need to be confident about the country's economy.

The author is executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn