OPINION / OBSERVER
Asian power dynamic will be remolded in Trump era
Published: Dec 15, 2016 10:48 PM

What will the Trump presidency bring to the power dynamic in the Asia-Pacific region? There are many uncertainties looming ahead. But major powers in the region have sped up preparations for changes the new US president may usher. 

On Thursday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe kicks off a long-awaited summit with visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin at a hot spring resort, or onsen in Japanese, in the prime minister's home prefecture of Yamaguchi. Although it's widely believed that the onsen meeting is unlikely to yield a breakthrough in the decades-old territorial row between the two nations over four islands, high hopes have been pinned on a string of inter-governmental commercial agreements to be signed on Friday. Those deals are hyped as a way of "drawing Russia away from China" by some Western media.

Abe wants to court Russia with economic benefits. The "America first" policy advocated by Trump has aroused anxieties in Japan. The president-elect has repeatedly said he would demand US allies to assume more of the cost of hosting the US military. Even if a territorial deal cannot be sealed with Russia, a thaw in relations with Moscow will ease security pressure for Tokyo. More importantly, Japan, fearing a rising China in East Asia, is eager to take the lead in forming a group to contain China's influence and make Russia one of them.

For Russia's part, Japan and Russia moving closer symbolizes a crack in Obama's policy of isolating Russia among the US' Western allies, which is of great geopolitical significance. But it's also noticeable that Moscow has the willingness to improve relations with Washington under the Trump administration, who may reset US policy toward Russia to begin a constructive dialogue. Meanwhile, Russia may also use its improved relationship with Japan to balance the Sino-US relationship.

Will then China be pushed to the frontline of confronting the US? This deserves close attention from China.

The Trump presidency presages an uncomfortable and potentially destabilizing time in the region.

Washington's traditional allies in the region, South Korea, Japan and Australia, will make adjustments based on US policy changes. Other regional players, such as India and ASEAN will recaliberate their strategies too.

Countries in the region are preparing for a changing situation. After Trump takes office, major power relations in the Asia-Pacific will undergo adjustments and even restructuring. China will become an influential factor in the process.

For instance, if Trump adopts increasing protectionist measures in trade against China, this will also implicate Japan and South Korea. China should keep a close eye on interactions between countries in the region, enhancing communications with them as well as strengthening strategic planning.