OPINION / VIEWPOINT
Chicago Council poll not a reflection of Americans' will to defend Taiwan
Published: Aug 29, 2021 05:43 PM
Illustration: Xia Qing/GT

Illustration: Xia Qing/GT

On Thursday, US think tank The Chicago Council on Global Affairs published a report based on a survey regarding Americans' views on the Taiwan question. One of the key findings of the report is that 52 percent of interviewees favor the use of US troops to defend the island of Taiwan if the Chinese mainland "were to invade" it. According to this Chicago-based think tank, this is the highest level ever recorded in its surveys since the question was first asked back in 1982.

In my opinion, this poll should be considered carefully, but it will not necessarily lead to fundamental changes of US Taiwan policy. It is said that public opinion changes like water. In fact, Americans in particular are probably not knowledgeable or interested in foreign affairs. And I believe that the vast majority of them cannot figure out the ins and outs of the history of an issue as complex as Taiwan. Therefore, the results of this survey may not be based on the participants' real understanding of the Taiwan question or even their knowledge of Chinese mainland. Instead, the results might be influenced by the hostile political climate in the US toward China.

Questions like "Would you favor or oppose using US troops if the Chinese mainland 'invaded' Taiwan?" are not meaningful. They would have more significance if several other necessary conditions were attached to them. For example, if defending Taiwan leads to all-out war or even a nuclear war between China and the US, would Americans still support sending US troops to the island? And how many of them would still say yes, given the specific cost of casualties that US soldiers might pay for helping defend the island? The results of these questions might turn out to be very different. 

Therefore, polls like the one conducted by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs may not fully reflect the deliberate attitude of the majority of Americans toward the Taiwan question.

However, for the mainland, such results reflect certain negative changes in American public opinion on the Taiwan question. And if such public opinion exists for a long time or even continues to strengthen, it may have a certain impact on the relevant decisions of the US. 

But the impact will be limited. Although Washington takes public opinion into account when making foreign policy, especially on major issues such as initiating wars, history proves that public opinion is only one of many factors. And it is definitely not the most important one. Thus, public opinion in the US may differ from the actual strategy of the US government. US government will most likely continue to maintain strategic ambiguity on the Taiwan question in the future.

The US could have publicly clarified its defense obligations toward the island of Taiwan decades ago, when US national power was overwhelmingly superior to Chinese mainland. But it is well aware that there's no need to do so. That is because it's not a question only about Washington's ability. It's about both capability and willingness, or essentially, the comparison of costs and benefits.

Washington should fully consider the consequences and the possible costs of a reckless action. In terms of Taiwan, here is the reality: Even if the US has the ability to defeat the mainland in a war, it will be unwilling to bear the consequences for defending the island if this means Washington has to pay a heavy price or even risks a nuclear war. This is the reason why Washington has maintained a strategic ambiguity policy over the past few decades. 

From the perspective of capabilities, the US' recent horrible performance in Afghanistan reflects its inadequate ability in handling crises and winning a war. It's fair to say the US has an all-dimensional military advantage in Afghanistan. Yet it still suffered a debacle. Overall, the US spent 20 years in Afghanistan, but ended up with a fiasco. If a Taiwan Straits war breaks out, the opponent the US will have to face is one of the world's great powers. What will the scenario be like then?

The US has failed in the war in Afghanistan, as it has in many military adventures like the Vietnam War. One thing is certain: Few Americans would believe that the US military could win a war with China's PLA without suffering major losses. As such, even if Washington really wants to defend the Taiwan island, it may neither have the ability to do so, nor have the willingness to bear the cost.

The author is deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn