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The supposedly professional US consulting firm Eurasia Group on Monday released its predicted top 10 global risks for 2022. Among the 10, the possible failure of China's zero-COVID policy which could trigger a supply chain collapse and other global economic disruptions tops No.1. The prediction, however, proves the firm's laughable professionalism.

When discussing how to predict risks, three factors must be taken into equal consideration. The first one is the chance that the risks could occur, the second one is the setup of a unified standard to measure the risks, and the last one is the consequences brought about by the risks. Common sense tells people that if they cannot equally take these factors into account, the supposedly scientific and serious predictions can easily turn into something unexpectedly amusing. For instance, if people don't take  probability into consideration, they would say that the biggest risk the world faces this year is a solar flare or an Earth-ending strike from an asteroid that could lead to the destruction of all humans. But the chances are slim.  China knows this well, hence the ancient proverb describing a character fearing that the sky will fall.

Meanwhile, how to define the so-called failure of China's zero-COVID policy? Compared with all the policies that fight against the COVID-19 pandemic implemented by different governments, it is impossible that China's zero-COVID policy would fail. An astonishing 1 million plus COVID-19 cases were reported in a single day in the US. Unless an outbreak somewhere in China takes place with a figure larger than the US', objectively speaking, no one should say China's policy is a failure. The current outbreak in Xi'an is considered the most severe in recent months in China, but if the same situation occurred in the US, the US may believe the epidemic is about to end on its soil. 

The Eurasia Group perhaps considers a single infection in China as a zero-COVID policy failure. Frankly speaking, its predictions can hardly be taken seriously, only as pure political expression. 

And how could China's policy lead to global supply-chain disruptions and inflationary pressures? It is actually a praise of China to admit that China is now the only pillar for maintaining the global supply chain and blocking the rapid rise of inflationary pressure. However, the Eurasia Group chose to say it in a negative way. This reflects that the Eurasia Group is not an objective assessment company, but more like an amateur organization seeking political prestige.

Facing the COVID-19 pandemic, these so-called professional institutions in the West have replaced professional judgments with political expressions. They have used sensational judgments as a form of self-hypnosis, leading to the uncontrollable spread of the pandemic in the West. This is the biggest risk in the world for the foreseeable future.

Now, these institutions in the West are showing a kind of psychological and mental hysteria. This is because they have no courage to face the failure of their COVID-19 fight. They also lack the courage to admit a simple reality: The root cause of such failure is their political systems.

If the goal of a political system is to let people live a happier and better life, the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that unless Western countries make major changes to their political systems, Westerners will always be vulnerable and exposed to the risk of death. In terms of preserving human lives and ensuring the public live a happy life, the Western systems, once regarded as the advanced representatives of world development, have shown their backwardness. Now the West can't get the ravaging pandemic under control, and even morbidly takes it for granted, falling into a paranoid and unsound mental and psychological state.

The West hopes to see China fail to fight the virus. As the Eurasia Group said, China's failure will bring risks. But this does no good to the West. What does the West hope to see, China's success or failure? With such a contradictory position shown by this kind of mental hysteria, the West is even unclear about which side it should stand on. In a bid to see China's failure, it does not hesitate to stand with the virus. 

This is actually a morbid manifestation of Western centralism and exceptionalism. On a global basis, this kind of cognitive dissonance in Western countries is indeed a huge risk, but the most direct victims of this risk are the people living in the West, because they will die for this.

China's dynamic zero-COVID policy restricts the public's freedom to some extent, but it can protect the lives of more people. People enjoy the so-called freedom of the West, but the price is to witness a much higher death toll.

There is no need to discuss the necessity of China's zero-COVID policy. The virus is a threat to human lives. Whenever possible, reducing the threat to zero is a goal that any competent government should pursue. 

The author is a professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn