Illustration: Xia Qing/GT

The Labor government, led by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, won the recent Australian federal election, with an increased majority.  Among the drivers of this result was growing support from Australia's expansive Chinese diaspora in a cluster of electorates, reflecting a broader public sentiment in favor of domestic inclusion and foreign policy stability, particularly in the management of Australia's complex relationship with China.

The China-Australia bilateral relationship is one with trilateral characteristics. Since World War II (WWII), Australia has anchored its strategic posture in the US alliance. However, the centrality of the US to Australia's medium-to-long term future is increasingly under the spotlight. 

The commitment of the Australian government to the $368 billion AUKUS agreement, centered on acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, has sparked serious domestic debate. Critics across the political spectrum, including senior statespeople and independent defense analysts, have raised concerns that the agreement risks dragging Australia into US-led conflicts and eroding the country's defense sovereignty.

This anxiety is magnified by the new US administration, with its erratic foreign policy approach, including abrupt tariff impositions and withdrawals from international institutions, which has undercut confidence in US reliability. US domestic political volatility, marked by dysfunction and polarization, exacerbates doubts about long-term dependability.  

In this context, Australia must confront a difficult question: can its national interest be safeguarded by outsourcing strategic thinking to Washington? 

Meanwhile, China remains central to Australia's economic prosperity. The trade surplus with China continues to underpin national income. Imports from China are critical in keeping inflation under control and supplying key intermediate goods for Australian manufacturing and service industries. Chinese students and tourists also continue to play a vital role in the services economy. 

Beyond trade, however, collaboration with China can play a vital role in Australia's future productivity growth.

Australia's declining position on Harvard's Economic Complexity Index is a warning sign. To arrest this decline, it must develop a more sophisticated industrial and technological base. This includes building capacity in AI and robotics, fields where China has made rapid advances. Rather than treating these capabilities solely as strategic threats, Australia should explore well-managed partnerships that enable Australian businesses to adapt and apply these technologies domestically. 

In renewable energy, China leads the world in solar photovoltaic production, battery technology, and grid-scale storage. Australian firms and research institutions stand to benefit from deeper technological exchange and joint ventures that accelerate the decarbonization of the domestic energy system while driving down costs.

The US cannot offer the same scale or immediacy of opportunity in these areas. While Australia's alliance with the US remains foundational for intelligence sharing and defense cooperation, it is increasingly inadequate as a platform for addressing the country's broader economic challenges and regional security. Technological diffusion, industrial upgrading, and innovation ecosystems are now global phenomena. China is central to them.

Meanwhile, short-term political debates around migration and housing affordability risk missing the broader structural context. While concerns about housing pressures are understandable, the evidence linking international students or migrants to long-term unaffordability is inconclusive at best and misleading at worst. 

Furthermore, reduced construction costs can be achieved through more imports from China, not less. China's urbanization experience is something to learn from. 
A forward-looking economic strategy would recognize China as both a critical partner and a structural reality. Engagement need not be naive, but neither should it be ideological. Managed bilateral pragmatism offers a sensible path forward. This will require policy agility, institutional coordination, and, above all, the political will to disentangle Australia's strategic outlook from historic binaries.

Faced with growing uncertainty from the US, Australia has before it a window of opportunity in which it can forge a leading role in shaping not only its own independent security but also contribute to the security of Asia writ large. 

No doubt, Washington will apply tremendous pressure on Canberra. Washington insists on framing the world in zero sum binary terms: us or them. Australia's interests are best served by rejecting such binaries. It can do so by forging an independent relationship with China that emphasizes not only mutual economic benefits but also leverages aligned economic interests to lay the groundwork for a new multipolar regional security architecture.

The author is an adjunct professor at the Queensland University of Technology, a senior fellow at Taihe Institute and a former advisor to Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn