A view of the Plant Vogtle nuclear power plant in Waynesboro, Georgia, US Photo: IC

Editor's Note: 

Recently, the US government set out aims to quadruple US nuclear capacity by 2050. While some Americans believe that nuclear is the key to winning the AI race, they began to hype that the US government's move will help the US maintain its early AI advantage in its competition with China. "We've got enough electricity to win the AI arms race with China," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said. The Global Times invited three Chinese experts to discuss this US policy and the logic behind it.

This is the 15th piece of the "Wisdom on China&US" series.

A geopolitically calculated move

Wang Yong, director of the American Studies Center, Peking University

The US government has signed a series of executive orders to hasten the deployment of new nuclear power reactors. On the surface, this policy reflects Washington's emphasis on revitalizing American manufacturing, energy security and related technological progress, but the China factor behind it should cause deep thought. At present, Washington's excessive emphasis on the competition with China and exaggeration of China's economic and technological "threats" may not be conducive to the realization of its goals in the end.

As an efficient and low-carbon form of energy, nuclear energy plays an important role in the global energy transition. The US has the largest number of nuclear power reactors in the world, with more than 90 in existence, but the development of nuclear power has slowed down in the past few decades due to high costs, strict regulations and public concerns. The new US government's executive orders aim to revitalize the nuclear power industry by simplifying approval processes, providing financial support and promoting small modular reactor (SMR) technology. This move aims not only to meet domestic energy needs, but is also closely related to the rapid development of AI. According to the International Energy Agency, estimated global data center electricity consumption in 2022 was around 1 to 1.3 percent of global final electricity demand, and it is expected to double by 2030. Nuclear power, with its high energy density and low carbon characteristics, has become an ideal option to meet this demand.

Washington has linked nuclear power with AI development, clearly pointing to competition with China in the technology field. The narrative of the "AI arms race" highlights the geopolitical calculations behind the policy. China has made significant progress in the field of AI in recent years. In 2023, China accounted for approximately 70 percent of global AI patent applications, while the US accounted for less than 15 percent. Therefore, the new US policy is obviously aimed at responding to the rise of Chinese technology and trying to consolidate the US' global leadership in the field of AI through energy advantages.

However, by positioning China as a major competitor and emphasizing "arms race" rather than collaboration, Washington has ignored the complementarity of the two countries' economies and technologies, which may lead to strategic misjudgments. Simplifying China-US relations into an "AI arms race" is an even more misleading narrative. The Chinese and US economies are highly complementary in the global industrial chain. The US has mature nuclear power technology and AI innovation ecology, but faces high construction costs and a complex regulatory environment. China, on the other hand, has demonstrated its advantages in the speed of nuclear power construction and the expansion of AI application scenarios by relying on coordinated decision-making and effective investment. The US leads in high-end chip design and AI algorithms, while China has advantages in manufacturing, supply chain integration and market size. The development of AI and nuclear energy is not a zero-sum game, but can achieve win-win results through cooperation. For example, international collaboration on nuclear energy technology has proven that technology sharing can accelerate global energy transformation. Similarly, issues such as AI ethical standards, data security and algorithm transparency require global coordination. Washington's competition narrative may lead to irrational decisions, such as over-subsidizing nuclear power projects or restricting international students from studying AI technology in the US, which will ultimately damage the US' own innovation ecosystem.

Washington should adjust its China policy from competition to cooperation to achieve common development in the fields of nuclear energy and AI. Specifically, China and the US can establish a nuclear energy technology cooperation framework to give play to their respective advantages in the field of nuclear energy. The US leads in nuclear safety standards and SMR technology, while China has advantages in construction efficiency and cost control. The two sides can jointly promote fourth-generation nuclear power technology and nuclear fusion research through technical exchanges, joint research and development, and mutual recognition of standards. For example, a China-US nuclear energy innovation alliance can be established to focus on the commercial application of small reactors, reduce global nuclear power construction costs and help achieve carbon neutrality.

The development of AI technology involves global issues such as data privacy, algorithmic bias and security risks. As leaders in the field of AI, China and the US can jointly lead the formulation of international AI ethics and technical standards. For example, a more authoritative AI global governance forum can be initiated through the UN or G20 framework to lead the international community to jointly respond to the social and security challenges brought by AI.

In short, the ultimate goal of nuclear energy and AI is to benefit mankind, not to serve geopolitical games. Washington's strategy of accelerating nuclear power construction and AI development is a positive response to the global trend of technological and energy transformation. However, its position of regarding China as a major competitor ignores the complementarity of the Chinese and American economies and the potential for cooperation. Overemphasis on confrontation will not only consume the national strength and credibility of the US, but may also hinder global technological progress. However, through cooperation, China and the US can achieve synergy in technology sharing, cost reduction and global governance. Washington should adjust its China policy with an open mind, work with China to jointly respond to global challenges in the fields of energy and technology, and contribute to the sustainable development of human society.

The essence of technological progress lies in openness and cooperation

Xiao Qian, vice dean of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University

On October 4, 1957, at the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union launched the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, into Earth's orbit. This event shocked the US and became what is known in history as the "Sputnik moment." In response, the US-led Western world began a full-scale containment of the Soviet Union, triggering intense competition in technology and military development.

Although the Cold War officially ended decades ago, Washington's strategic and political circles have yet to abandon their Cold War mind-set. They continue to treat other countries as rivals or imaginary enemies, frequently invoking the "Sputnik moment" to stir public anxiety over the risk of being surpassed by competitors. In January this year, when Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek broke through US technological barriers with a low-cost, high-efficiency innovation model, some in Washington framed it as a sign that a new "Sputnik moment" in the age of AI was looming. 

Eight years ago, the US made maintaining its technological dominance and preventing China from overtaking it the primary goals of its AI development strategy. In December 2017, the National Security Strategy of the US designated China as a "strategic competitor" challenging American power, influence and interests, emphasizing that AI and other emerging technologies were key battlegrounds in the China-US rivalry. Washington has since enacted export controls and supply chain restructuring to restrict China's access to advanced AI technology. It has also implemented the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act to tightly regulate and limit Chinese-backed investments in US high-tech firms. At the same time, schemes like the "China Initiative" sought to suppress and restrict China-US academic and scientific cooperation. 

Under the Joe Biden administration, this competition-centered stance evolved into a more systematic approach encapsulated by the "small yard, high fence" strategy. In addition to continuing export controls, financial sanctions, high tariffs and domestic investment reviews, Biden signed Executive Order 14105 in August 2023 to expand oversight to outbound US investment. Meanwhile, the Biden administration strengthened coordination with allied countries on AI technology standards and supply chain security, and, toward the end of its term, issued the "AI Diffusion Rule" to further restrict the export and spread of AI chips to China.

Following the inauguration of the new US government in January this year, its China-related science and technology policies became a major focal point. During the campaign, Trump's team pledged to repeal Biden-era executive orders on AI, aiming to relax regulations, stimulate Silicon Valley innovation and maintain US dominance in the AI race with China. Upon taking office, the US administration appointed several tech industry leaders to key government positions. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of Chinese AI firms, such as DeepSeek, has sparked growing domestic skepticism about what more Washington can do to sustain its tech blockade. Unfortunately, judging from recent AI policy announcements, Washington still hasn't broken free from its zero-sum mind-set. In today's digital era, where openness and sharing define the global innovation landscape, Washington's AI decisions are still primarily driven by its agenda to "counter China."

On May 13, the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security announced it was initiating a rollback of Biden's AI diffusion rules, only to simultaneously unveil three new measures that further tightened global AI chip export controls aimed at hindering the development of China's AI industry. These measures included new limitations on the use of AI chips in Chinese AI model training and stricter enforcement of tech barriers to sustain US semiconductor supremacy in global supply chains. 

On May 23, the US government announced executive orders, this time to quadruple US nuclear energy production over the next 25 years. A draft summary of the orders stated that the US was entering a "national emergency," citing dependence on China and Russia for enriched uranium, nuclear fuel processing and advanced reactor inputs. However, the reality is that the US remains a global leader in civilian nuclear power, currently operating 94 reactors - far more than France or China, which each operates just over 50. 

It's increasingly clear that portraying China as a rival has become a convenient political tool for some US politicians to advance domestic agendas - regardless of whether such moves are effective, reasonable or genuinely capable of "making America great again." But the world today is no longer divided like it was during the Cold War. The essence of technological progress lies in openness and cooperation, not isolation and confrontation. By clinging to a Cold War, zero-sum mind-set and focusing only on restricting and preventing rivals, the US risks entangling itself and ultimately undermining its own interests. In this prolonged contest over global technological power, a nation's ability to innovate independently while engaging in open collaboration will determine whether it can seize strategic advantages. Pursuing win-win cooperation, empowering modernization for all countries, benefiting humanity and creating new opportunities for the world - these are the true drivers of sustainable national development.

The US faces multiple challenges in developing civil nuclear energy

Lin Boqiang, chair professor of the School of Management, Xiamen University and director of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy

US President Donald Trump has signed a series of executive orders, aiming to support the rapid development of the country's civil nuclear energy. The specific contents include providing financing support for the upgrading of existing reactors, shortening the approval period for new reactors, and enhancing the mining and enrichment capacity of uranium.

Washington has proposed this series of support measures not only to revitalize the US nuclear energy industry, but also to significantly enhance nuclear power supply capacity to meet the substantial new electricity demands brought about by the rapid development of AI in recent years. Behind this decision of the US are considerations of energy security and independence, as well as strategic planning to grasp technological dominance and development advantages in the AI era. 

For a long time, the electricity demand in the US has been relatively stable. In recent years, the unexpected and rapid development of AI has brought new pressure to the US power system. According to an analysis report released by MIT Technology Review in mid-May, about 4.4 percent of the total electricity consumption in the US comes from data computing centers. The projection report of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in the US shows that by 2028 more than half of the electricity going to data centers will be used for AI and AI alone could consume as much electricity annually as 22 percent of all US households. Both the computing and reasoning of AI rely on the computing power support of large-scale data centers. As data centers undertake high-performance computing, deep learning and big data analysis, as well as other computing tasks, the demand for electricity is not only large but also has high requirements for supply stability. Therefore, a stable and reliable power supply must be provided to meet the development needs of AI.

Meanwhile, Washington believes that China's rapid development in the field of AI has brought competitive pressure. Currently, China and the US are neck and neck in areas such as AI technological innovation, infrastructure construction and talent cultivation. The US, relying on its accumulated technological research and development advantages and strong talent reserves, still holds a relatively leading position in the field of AI. However, China has also developed its own advantages in AI through algorithm optimization, infrastructure construction for computing power and expansion of application scenarios. The emergence of DeepSeek has demonstrated China's ambition and strength in the field of AI. 

Washington believes that nuclear energy, with its high stability in power generation and low carbon emissions, is an ideal choice to support the development of AI. Nuclear power can provide continuous and stable electricity, meeting the strict requirements of data centers. The nuclear power renaissance development strategy is becoming a key means for the US to maintain its competitive edge in AI.

Despite the ambitious nuclear power support policies introduced by the US, the plan to develop civil nuclear energy through a high-stakes approach faces multiple challenges.

First, its domestic uranium mining and processing capacity is relatively weak. The decline in the production capacity of key components and equipment due to the hollowing out of manufacturing has further restricted the rapid advancement of nuclear energy projects. Overall, the current cost competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry is relatively weak, and its production efficiency and cost control capabilities are inferior to those of China, resulting in high costs at every stage of nuclear energy projects, from design to construction.

Second, the US relies heavily on imports of various infrastructure construction and equipment procurement, further increasing the difficulty and uncertainty of costs in nuclear energy construction. The high costs resulting from these deficiencies have become a significant obstacle to the development of nuclear energy in the US. For instance, the Alvin W. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, also known as Plant Vogtle, is the largest nuclear power plant in the US, when construction of Units 3 & 4 began. The two units utilizing Westinghouse AP1000 reactors began preliminary construction in 2009, with Unit 3 expected to be operational in 2016, followed by Unit 4 in 2017. Nonetheless, during construction, the units suffered several delays and cost overruns. The certified construction and capital costs for these two units were originally $14 billion. In 2023, costs had increased to $34 billion. Unit 3 only began commercial operations on July 31, 2023, becoming the first new nuclear reactor in the US in 7 years. 

Third, despite the US possessing third-generation nuclear power technology, there has been a notable shortage of talent reserves in nuclear power construction in recent years, which is difficult to support the large-scale and rapid development of nuclear power. As seen from the Vogtle case, its practical operation ability was worrying. The construction period of nuclear power is very long. Due to the shortcomings of the manufacturing industry, the impact of the trade war on imports and the insufficient reserves of practical operation talents, the construction cost of nuclear power in the US will lead to great cost uncertainty, all of which may affect enthusiasm for investment.

From the development over the past two decades, the gap between the US and China in nuclear energy construction has become increasingly obvious. Relying on a strong manufacturing base and policy coordination capabilities, China has demonstrated efficient planning and execution capabilities. Currently, the vast majority of global nuclear power plants under construction are in China. In contrast, the US is lacking in coordination and long-term sustainability. Project advancement is often constrained by multi-party interest games, as well as shortages of nuclear power construction talents and funds. Due to the slow pace of nuclear power development in the US, it remains to be seen whether the current nuclear power policy of the White House can rapidly promote the development of nuclear power in the country.