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Editor's Note:

Amid renewed US tariff threats against countries around the world and South Korea's recent leadership transition, dynamics in East Asia seem to enter a period of adjustment. Trilateral cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea is gaining greater strategic relevance - not only as a response to shifting global power structures, but also as a proactive effort to safeguard regional stability and economic resilience. The Global Times has gathered viewpoints from experts in the three countries to explore the evolving outlook for trilateral cooperation under new regional and global realities.

Xiang Haoyu, distinguished research fellow at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies of the China Institute of International Studies

Since the new US administration took office, cracks have appeared in US alliances with Japan and South Korea. In particular, Washington's tariff policies have directly targeted key industries such as auto and steel, placing enormous pressure on the Japanese and South Korean economies. Both Japan and South Korea have been trying to secure a trade deal with Washington as soon as possible; however, such efforts have fallen short, casting further uncertainty over the relationship between both Asian countries and the US.

I recently attended a high-level trilateral forum in Seoul and observed that regardless of their political leanings, many former officials and scholars from Japan and South Korea expressed deep concern about the "Trump shock" and voiced strong interest in strengthening China-Japan-South Korea cooperation. Notably, Japan - traditionally lukewarm on a trilateral Free Trade Agreement - has been showing rare enthusiasm in recent years. 

Currently, amid mounting global instability, economic downturn risks and dramatic shifts in US foreign policy, the world seems to be entering another period of crisis. Under pressure on both economic and security fronts, Japan and South Korea are demonstrating increased strategic independence. Deepening cooperation with China offers them a way to expand diplomatic options, safeguard economic interests, and hedge against the risk from the US.

Later this year, Japan will host the 10th trilateral summit among the three countries, while South Korea will host the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting. Both governments view these as centerpieces of their 2025 diplomatic agenda and are hoping for a visit from Chinese leadership to showcase their diplomatic achievements. The uptick in high-level exchanges is expected to inject fresh political momentum into trilateral cooperation.

While changes in the external environment have indeed facilitated a thaw in China-Japan-South Korea relations, it is important to note that the driving force is largely internal. Their cooperation is rooted in broad common interests. China-Japan-South Korea cooperation is not only vital for the three countries' long-term development, but also for regional peace and prosperity.

That said, enduring challenges remain - most notably, a lack of political trust, fragile public sentiment, and insufficient momentum for cooperation. To overcome these hurdles, the three governments must forge strong political consensus and commit to flexible, pragmatic, and sustained efforts. China, Japan and South Korea have the potential to build a stabilizing "breakwater" for East Asia amid a turbulent global landscape.

Tashiro Hidetoshi, chief executive officer of Terra Nexus Project Management Services in Japan

Currently, the Trump administration has imposed exorbitant tariffs on East Asian countries across the board. Given their high export ratios to the US, these nations are compelled to engage in tough negotiations with Washington. In the long term, they aim to reduce their economic reliance on the US and expand intra-regional trade within East Asia. Despite this being an opportune moment to decrease US dependence and pursue economic independence, some countries and regions have declared from the outset that they will not impose retaliatory tariffs against the US. There is a lack of unity in countering the US, and creating a framework for a united response has become an urgent task.

Another new reality in East Asia emerged with Lee Jae-myung becoming the new South Korean president. Lee stressed the importance of cooperation with Japan based on South Korea's alliance with the US. Although Lee, hindered by the previous administration's interference, may struggle to introduce specific policies even after assuming the presidency, he has not adopted an anti-Japanese stance. It is also believed that Lee is committed to pursuing China-Japan-South Korea cooperation. 

To maintain and develop the Japan-China-South Korea supply chain, the three countries must deepen their cooperation. The US, aiming to dismantle the Japan-China-South Korea supply chain in the high-tech field and establish a self-sufficient system within its own borders, is strategically fomenting divisions among the three nations. To resist such US provocations, it is essential for Japan, China, and South Korea to advance their cooperation across all fields.

Jaewoo Choo, professor of Chinese foreign policy, Department of Chinese Studies, Kyung Hee University

Following the presidential election in June, South Koreans are expressing optimism regarding the potential for the new administration to enhance relations between South Korea and China. Furthermore, significant expectations are placed on the trilateral relations among South Korea, China and Japan. The newly elected president, Lee, is primarily focused on pragmatic diplomacy. The fundamental principle of pragmatism in foreign policy stems from Lee's assertion during his presidential campaign that it would center on national interests. Consequently, he aims to foster positive relations with neighboring countries, including China and North Korea.

On June 10, during a call with President Xi Jinping, Lee said that he attaches great importance to the South Korea-China relations and is willing to work with the Chinese side to promote the in-depth development of the good-neighborly and friendly relations between the two countries, improve and enhance goodwill between the two peoples, and achieve more fruitful results in the South Korea-China cooperation. According to South Korean media, he also invited the Chinese leader to "visit South Korea within the year." President Lee aims to establish a positive tone for his foreign policy that resonates well with all neighboring nations. While he did not explicitly address South Korea-China-Japan cooperation during his campaign, his stance can be inferred from the pragmatism that underpins his foreign policy - throughout his campaign trails, he articulated his support for free trade and multilateralism.

As the South Korea-China-Japan summit is expected to be held later this year, President Lee is poised to steer the event in a constructive direction, aiming to minimize the potential for politicization while emphasizing the importance of enhancing economic cooperation. He is expected to exert his utmost efforts to realize future agendas at the summit. His previous tenure as both governor and mayor demonstrates a strong focus on business-oriented strategies. He expresses a strong discontent with leaving economic discussions without tangible outcomes. The significance of a deal lies not in its size, but rather in its substance, which holds great importance for him. This is one reason to be optimistic about future South Korea-China-Japan meetings during Lee's tenure.